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昆山去眼角医院江苏省昆山市周庄人民医院去疤多少钱The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council announced Wednesday it has labeled the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah a terrorist organization.由六个成员国组成的海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会星期三宣布,把黎巴嫩激进组织真主党列为恐怖组织。GCC Secretary-General Abdullatif al-Zayani said the move is linked to Hezbollahs attempts to recruit young people in GCC countries to carry out terrorist acts, smuggle weapons and explosives, and incite disorder and violence.海合会秘书长阿卜杜拉提夫·扎耶尼说,这么做是因为真主党试图在海合会成员国中招募年轻人从事恐怖活动,走私武器和爆炸物,以及煽动骚乱和暴力。He said Hezbollah actions in Syria, Yemen and Iraq are not compatible with moral and humanitarian values and pose a threat to Arab national security.他说,真主党在叙利亚、也门和伊拉克的行动与道德和人道主义价值观背道而驰,对阿拉伯国家的安全构成威胁。The GCC is made up of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the ed Arab Emirates. The group previously imposed sanctions on Hezbollah for its support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and sending militants into Syria to fight alongside the army.海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会曾因真主党持叙利亚总统阿萨德并派遣激进分子进入叙利亚配合政府军作战而对它实施过制裁。来 /201603/429966昆山百达丽整形医院能打美白针吗 The EU is close to a deal with Ankara that would see all non-Syrian migrants reaching Greek islands returned to Turkey, marking a crucial step in the bloc’s hardening stance against the flow of people pouring into its territories. 欧盟接近与安卡拉方面达成协议,按照该协议,抵达希腊岛屿的来自叙利亚以外国家的所有难民将被送回土耳其,这标志着欧盟迈出关键的一步,对源源不断涌来的人潮立场转向强硬After weeks of diplomatic pressure from Berlin and Brussels, Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish prime minister, privately signalled in negotiations yesterday that Ankara would accept the systematic return of non-Syrians and step up action against smugglers. 在柏林和布鲁塞尔施加外交压力数周之后,土耳其总理阿赫迈特#8226;达乌特奥Ahmet Davutoglu)昨日在谈判期间私下发出信号暗示,安卡拉将接受系统化地遣返所有非叙利亚难民,并加大力度打击人口走私贩Although the agreement is tentative, the terms could mark a long-sought turning point in Europe’s migration crisis, giving a harder edge to a strategy that has largely failed to dent flow of people across the Aegean Sea. 虽然这份协议是试探性的,但其条款可能标志着欧洲的移民危机达到了一个各方努力已久的转折点,使迄今基本上未能阻止人潮渡过爱琴海的战略具备更加强硬的锋芒The flood of migrants has triggered acute tensions within the EU as more than 1.2m people reached the 28-country bloc by sea last year. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has come under pressure at home and from other countries to stem the flow after she pledged to accept Syrian refugees last year and then sought an EU deal to share the burden with reluctant member states. 难民洪流引发了欧盟内部的严重紧张。去年有120余万人从海路进入8个成员国的欧盟。德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)在国内外都受到要求阻止难民潮的压力,去年她曾承诺接受叙利亚难民,但随后寻求在欧盟内部就分摊难民安置负担达成协议,其中一些成员国对此很不情愿Two diplomats familiar with the discussions yesterday said Turkey also agreed to accept all migrants rescued in international waters by a Nato mission a sensitive issue that had held-up progress on the operation. 熟悉相关商谈的两名外交官昨日表示,土耳其还同意接受北约在国际水域救助的所有难民。这是一个敏感问题,此前曾阻碍北约救助行动的进展。来 /201603/430506In a season of discredited predictions, here is a safe one. The presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will shatter all audience records. Their draw will bear no relation to the substance of the issues. Tens of millions will tune in to watch our age’s most trigger-happy insulter denigrate one of the world’s most famous women.在不靠谱的预言满天飞的季节,有一条比较保险的预言。希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德#8226;特朗Donald Trump)的总统竞选辩论将打破一切观众人数纪录。他们的辩论的吸引力与所辩问题的重要性完全无关。数千万人将为了收看我们这个时代最爱乱开的攻击者炮轰全世界最著名的女性之一而打开电视。In ancient Rome gladiators slaughtered barbarians to keep the people entertained. In this case however, the barbarian has a shot at becoming emperor. Whether or not he succeeds, US democracy will never be the same.在古罗马,角斗士屠杀野蛮人以观众。不过,在当前这场角逐中,野蛮人有机会成为皇帝。无论他能否成功,美国民主将不同于过去。What happens in the debates will offer Mr Trump’s best chance of gaining the prize. By any normal measure, Mrs Clinton’s campaign is light years ahead of her rival. Her fundraising machine is running at full pelt, raising close to 0m so far nearly five times Mr Trump’s total. Her voter registration operation is pounding the streets in the key swing states. Mr Trump does not yet have a ground game worth the name. Mrs Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters is the size of a small corporation with hundreds of full-time staff. Mr Trump’s Manhattan operation consists of a small circle of loyalists with scant electoral experience among them.辩论将给特朗普提供一次入主白宫的最佳机会。以任何正常衡量标准来看,希拉里的竞选实力都甩出特朗普数光年的距离。她的筹款机器正在全速运转,截至目前已经筹得了将亿美元——几乎是特朗普的5倍。在关键的摇摆州,大街上随处可见她的选民登记务。特朗普目前尚没有名副其实的实地工作。希拉里在布鲁克林的竞选总部相当于一家小公司的规模,拥有数百名全职员工。特朗普在曼哈顿的竞选总部只有一小群缺乏竞选经验的忠诚人士。In their view Mr Trump is David to Mrs Clinton’s Goliath. Instead of a sling he holds a Twitter account. His main weapon is an ability to suss out his opponent’s rawest nerves and mercilessly exploit them. Some commentators have dismissed Mr Trump as a schoolyard bully who hurls insults to get his way.在他们看来,如果说希拉里是巨人歌利亚(Goliath)的话,特朗普就是与之对阵的大卫。只不过他的武器不是投石器,而是Twitter账户。他的法宝是挖出对手的最大痛点,并毫不留情加以利用。一些人士视特朗普为随心所欲乱骂一气的校园恶霸而对他嗤之以鼻。This is an apt summary of his moral character. It is also a dangerously complacent underestimate of his skills. Everything we have learnt from the 2016 campaign is that voters value facts, logic and consistency much less than we may have supposed. Mr Trump’s campaign is built on that insight. Civility is overrated. Insults work.这恰当地总结了特朗普的道德品质。但这也危险而自大地低估了他的能力。我们从2016年美国总统竞选中学到的全都是,选民重视事实、逻辑和一致性的程度远低于我们原本的设想。特朗普的竞选就基于这条认识。彬彬有礼的重要性被高估了。出口伤人很管用。Could they carry him all the way to the White House? The standard rule of US presidential campaigns says that the candidates themselves should avoid attacking their opponent’s character such dirty work is best left to surrogates.那些骂人话能把他一路送进白宫吗?美国总统竞选的准则称,候选人本人应该避免攻击对手的人格——这样的脏活最好留给代理人。Mr Trump has upended that logic. Barely a day passes when he does not describe Mrs Clinton in language that has no precedent in modern US politics. One moment Mrs Clinton is an enabler to a rapist husband, the next she is a crook who deserves to be in jail. Her family bribed and killed its way to office in the 1990s. If she cannot satisfy her husband, how can she satisfy America?特朗普颠覆了这种逻辑。他几乎每天都会用美国当代政坛从未出现过的语言来形容希拉里。一会儿,希拉里是其强奸犯丈夫的帮凶;一会儿,她又成了该进监狱的骗子。上世纪90年代,她一家通过贿赂和不择手段入主白宫。如果她连自己的丈夫都满足不了,如何能够满足美国?Mrs Clinton is gingerly following suit. Last week she called Mr Trump a fraud whose campaign consisted of a “series of bizarre rants, personal feuds and outright lies He was trying to scam American voters in the same way Trump University had ripped off thousands of gullible customers.希拉里正在小心翼翼地效仿。上周,她称特朗普是骗子,他的竞选包含了“一系列奇葩的咆哮、个人恩怨和裸的谎言”。他试图欺骗美国选民,就像“特朗普大学Trump University)欺诈数千名轻信于他的客户一样。Mrs Clinton has reams of evidence to back her claims. Yet she has crossed a line she cannot uncross. If you get into a street fight with a thug, be sure to have every weapon to hand. If you use your fists, he will put on his knuckle duster. If you land a blow, he will pull out a knife. Mrs Clinton is playing on Mr Trump’s territory. He will always come back with something worse.希拉里拥有大量可以撑其控诉的据。不过,她已经越过了她无法不越过的界线。如果你陷入了与恶棍的街头混战,那么你要保手中握有所有的武器。如果你用拳头,他会戴上他的指节钢环。如果你抡起一拳,他会拔出匕首。希拉里眼下就在特朗普的地盘上出招。他总会用更恶劣的手段回击。There are still five months to go before polling day yet the 2016 race is aly a contest between “Crooked Hillaryand “Trump the Fraud Peak ugliness is still some way off. Can Mrs Clinton handle the inevitable escalation? Can democracy survive such nastiness unscathed?距离选举日还个月的时间,但是2016年美国总统大选已经成了“不诚实的希拉里”与“骗子特朗普”之间的较量。最丑陋的时刻还未到来。希拉里应付得了不可避免的恶斗升级吗?民主可以毫发无伤地挺过如此的不堪吗?The answer to the first is disturbingly ambivalent. Mr Trump has barely scratched the surface of Mrs Clinton’s potential conflict of interest with Bill Clinton’s global foundation, an outfit that takes millions of dollars from foreign governments and business figures that has no precedent in US politics.第一个问题的存在令人不安的矛盾。特朗普几乎只触碰到了希拉里与比#8226;克林Bill Clinton)全球基金会潜在利益冲突的皮毛。该基金会从外国政府和商界人物获取了巨额资金,这在美国政治中史无前例。Friends of Mrs Clinton have urged her to say she would close down the foundation if she is elected president. She is clearly reluctant to do so. The longer she delays what would be a wise and necessary pledge, the more Mr Trump will bolster his “crooked Hillarymoniker.希拉里的朋友敦促她承诺,如果当选总统,她会关闭该基金会。她显然不愿意这样做。她越是迟迟不作出明智而必要的承诺,特朗普就越有底气喊出“不诚实的希拉里”的绰号。Second, at some point in the coming weeks, the Federal Bureau of Investigation will recommend whether to indict Mrs Clinton and her underlings for having used a private server for official communications.第二,在未来数周的某一时刻,联邦调查局(FBI)将就是否因希拉里及其手下使用私人务器进行官方交流而起诉他们给出建议。If the FBI merely slaps Mrs Clinton on the wrist it would still offer material for Mr Trump to allege a cover-up. If President Barack Obama’s Department of Justice buries an FBI recommendation to indict, someone will leak it. The resulting scandal could quickly engulf the campaign.如果FBI只是对希拉里略施小惩,仍然会给特朗普以口实,称官方掩盖事实。如果美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)的司法部压下FBI的起诉建议,会有人泄露出去。由此带来的丑闻会很快淹没整个竞选。Mrs Clinton is a weak candidate with serious vulnerabilities. Having searched vainly for a positive theme, she has settled on a negative one. Mr Trump is too dangerous to be president. She is right about that. Yet she has also chosen to fight on his terms.希拉里不是一位强大的候选人,她有着严重的弱点。在苦寻正面主题徒劳无获后,她最终选定了负面主题。特朗普是一个太过危险的人物,不应成为总统。这一点她说对了。但她也错误地选择了用特朗普的方式去作战。All the conventional measures say Mrs Clinton ought to win by a landslide. Yet my gut says things may not be that simple. Moreover, her victory could quickly look hollow. It will be hard to govern a country so bitterly divided by personal hatred.所有的传统衡量标准都表明希拉里应该以压倒性的优势胜出。不过,我的直觉告诉我,事情或许没那么简单。此外,她的胜利可能很快会看起来毫无价值。治理一个被个人仇恨搞得四分五裂的国家,是一件困难的事。When Mrs Clinton refers to her husband’s 1990s presidency, she often asks: “Which part of peace and prosperity didn’t you like?Mr Trump’s answer is clear: You, your husband and quite possibly your daughter too. It is in anticipation of this that record audiences will be tuning in.当希拉里提到她丈夫在上世0年代的总统任期时,她常会问:“和平和繁荣中的哪个部分让你不喜欢?”特朗普的很明确:你、你的丈夫、很可能还有你的女儿。创纪录数量的观众会因为期待看到这样的场面去收看他们的辩论。来 /201606/448725太仓市妇幼保健院激光去斑多少钱

江苏省昆山百达丽整形医院激光去红血丝多少钱昆山市妇幼保健医院做红色胎记手术多少钱 Mohammed bin Salman, son of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and his deputy crown prince, is commonly referred to as the power behind the throne. That phrase falls short after this week’s unveiling of his Vision 2030, the most ambitious reform programme in the kingdom’s history. Whether he succeeds or fails, for now he is the power. 沙特国王萨勒King Salman)的儿子、副王储穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒Mohammed bin Salman),通常被称为王权背后的掌权者。本周,在他公布沙特历史上最雄心勃勃的改革计划“愿030Vision 2030)之后,这个称呼已经不准确了。无论他是成是败,目前他就是掌权者Since his ageing father succeeded to the throne last year, the 30-year-old prince has taken hold of most of the main levers of power: as economy overlord, defence minister and architect of Saudi Arabia’s increasingly hawkish foreign policy. Now he has set breathtaking targets to wean Saudis off what he calls an “addiction to oilby replacing fast depleting hydrocarbon revenue with income from private investment, privatisation and the creation of the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund. 自从去年他年迈的父亲继承王位以来,这0岁的王子已把持了国家的大部分主要权力:他是最高经济官员、国防部长,还是沙特日益鹰派的外交政策的设计者。如今,他制定了令人激动的目标,即用私人投资、私有化和打造全球最大主权财富基金产生的收益,取代快速减少的碳氢化合物收入,从而使沙特人摆脱他所称的“石油瘾”He plans to float up to 5 per cent of Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, and place it and other assets in this fund, which he envisages will eventually exceed tn and become a global investment force. He fore sees non-oil revenue quadrupling by 2020 from just over bn last year, before nearly doubling again by 2030. “I think in 2020 we can live without oil,he said this weekCHKD. 他打算将国有石油公司沙特阿拉伯石油公Saudi Aramco)至多5%的股份公开发行,然后把筹得资金和其他资产注入主权财富基金中。他设想,该基金的规模最终将超过2万亿美元,成为全球投资领域的一重要力量。他预计,到2020年非石油收入将在去年略高00亿美元的基础上增加三倍,030年接近再翻一番。他本周表示:“我认为020年我们不靠石油收入也能生活。Prince Mohammed, known in diplomatic shorthand as MbS, has said he also intends to introduce accountability in a public administration plagued by waste and corruption including at his defence ministry, responsible for the world’s third biggest arms procurement programme. He intends to raise locally sourced arms production from 2 per cent now to 50 per cent by 2030CHKD. 穆罕默德王子表示,他也打算在浪费和腐败问题严重的公共管理领域——包括他领导下的国防部——引入问责制。沙特国防部掌管着全球第三大武器采购项目。他打算030年把武器国产化率从目前的2%提升0%All this rewrites the social contract whereby Saudis forgo political rights and offer fealty to the House of Saud in return for public sector jobs and cradle-to-grave welfare funded by oil. Coming even close to these goals implies radical social change, an upheaval in governance all without much sign that the absolute monarchy intends its subjects to become fully participatory citizens. 所有这一切会重写当前的社会契约:沙特人放弃政治权利,效忠沙特王室(House of Saud),以换取公共行业的工作机会以及依靠石油收入实现的从摇篮到坟墓的福利保障。即便只是朝这些目标靠近,都暗示着激进的社会改革、治理的巨变——同时并没有多少迹象表明这个绝对君主制国家打算让自己的臣民变成完全参与型公民While no one can fault MbS for his boldness, his programme resembles a mobilisation of technocrats to bypass big political obstacles. The biggest of these is the cornerstone of the state: the historic compact between the House of Saud and the House of ibn Abdul Wahhab, the 18th century preacher behind the most extreme version of Sunni Muslim orthodoxy ever attempted as a form of governance. The ruling family has until now relied on the Wahhabi establishment as reactionary and bigoted as ever for its legitimacy, in exchange for clerical control over areas such as education and the judiciary, as well as the segregation of women. 尽管谁也不能指责穆罕默德王子的大胆,但他的改革计划好像是想利用技术官僚绕过一些重大政治障碍。其中最大的政治障碍是沙特国家的基石:沙特王House of Saud)与伊#8226;阿卜杜勒#8226;瓦哈卜家House of ibn Abdul Wahhab)缔结的历史性条约。伊#8226;阿卜杜勒#8226;瓦哈卜是瓦哈比教派的创始人,生活8世纪。该教派是伊斯兰教正统逊尼派各分中,曾被尝试作为一种治理形式的最极端的一。直到如今,沙特执政家族一直依赖瓦哈比当权派——他们像以往任何时候一样极端顽固保守——维持执政合法性,同时作为回报,给予后者在教育、司法以及隔离女性等领域的宗教控制权That is one lever of power the deputy crown prince does not hold, and it is hard to see his reform plans prospering if this symbiotic compact stays as it is. Deference to Saudi Arabia, moreover, has diminished as understanding grows of the ways in which Wahhabi proselytism feeds into virulent jihadi phenomena such as al-Qaeda and Isis. That alone undermines the kingdom’s potential as an investment magnet. 这是这位副王储并未掌握的一种权力,倘若这一共存条约不改变的话,我们是很难看到他的改革计划取得成功的。此外,随着人们日益了解瓦哈比教派的劝诱改宗如何催生基地组织(al-Qaeda)、伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)等危险圣战组织,外界对沙特的尊重减弱了。仅这一点就损害了沙特的潜在投资吸引力MbS, with a reputation for strong-headedness, may be seeking new sources of legitimacy from his own generation. He still has to consolidate his power inside a sprawling, faction-ridden family but he has given a few hints. 以固执而著称的穆罕默德王子,或许正向他的同代人那里寻找新的执政合法性来源。他还是得在一个派系林立的庞大家族内巩固自己的权力——但他也给出了些许暗示This month the unbridled power of the religious police, the notorious Mutawa, was curbed; the force can no longer arrest, question or pursue those judged in breach of its stern social mores. This week he said that whether Saudi women whose participation in the workforce he intends to increase would win the right to drive was a decision for society. Yet in a recent interview with Bloomberg he said: “We believe women have rights in Islam that they’ve yet to obtainalmost an invitation for Saudis to become more assertive on this and similarly discriminatory issues. 本月,沙特臭名昭著的宗教警察(Mutawa)肆无忌惮的权力受到了限制;他们再也不能逮捕、审问或追捕那些被认定违反了其严厉社会风俗的人。本周,他表示,沙特妇女——他打算让更多妇女进入职场——是否将赢得驾驶权利,是社会的决定。但他不久前接受彭Bloomberg)采访时表示,“我们相信,在伊斯兰世界中,妇女还有权利尚未实现”——这几乎是鼓励沙特人在这个问题以及其他具有同样歧视性的问题上表现得更坚决But on education, for example, reform cannot sidestep the clergy. At the heart of the MbS plan is the creation of private-sector jobs for underemployed, often underqualified youth, much of whose schooling consists of bombardment with Wahhabi dogma. One front-rank Gulf employer tells of interviewing a Saudi graduate whose doctorate was on Islamic ablutions. 但是,改革在比如教育等领域无法绕过教权。穆罕默德王子改革方案的核心,是为那些未充分就业、往往资质不足的年轻人创造私人部门的工作机会。在这些年轻人中,很多人受到的教育都包括大量瓦哈比教义的灌输。一家海湾地区的一流雇主谈到,他们曾经面试过一名沙特毕业生,这名毕业生士读的是伊斯兰净礼Prince Mohammed’s vision calls for wholesale curriculum reform and five Saudi universities in the top 200. There are no technocratic bypasses on that road, which leads to collision with the Wahhabi clerical establishment. 穆罕默德王子的愿景呼吁实施全面的课程改革,让5所沙特大学进入全球00名。这个目标是无法通过技术官僚式绕路实现的,这意味着与瓦哈比宗教当权派的冲突在所难免。来 /201605/440560昆山自体脂肪丰脸价格

昆山哪个医院可以整歪鼻B News –Foreign firms thatown property in the UK will have to declare their assets publicly in a bid tostamp out money-laundering, the government says.B新闻 在英国拥有物业的外国公司必须公开申报资产,以杜绝洗钱行 政府表示.Companies will have to be on a new registerif they hold property or want to compete for government contracts.公司如果持有物业或想要竞争政府合就必须做新的注册.The move comes as Prime Minister DavidCameron attempts to lead a wider effort to crack down on global corruption.此举推出正值卡梅伦首相力图领导更大范围的打击全球腐败的运动.World leaders are gathering in London for asummit aimed at stepping up action to tackle the problem.世界领导人将聚集伦敦参加旨在加大对付腐败问题行动力度的峰Downing Street said the register would mean;corrupt individuals and countries will no longer be able to move, launderand hide illicit funds through Londons property market, and will not benefitfrom our public funds;.唐宁街说,登记意味着!腐败的个人和国家将不再能够通过伦敦房地产市场转洗白和隐匿非法资不会从我国的公共资金中受!It said foreign companies owned about100,000 properties in England and Wales and that more than 44,000 of these werein London.它说,外国公司在英格兰和威尔士拥有0万处物业,其中超过4.4万处在伦Matthew Hancock, Cabinet Office Minister,said: ;It does not matter where in the world your company is registered ifyou own property in London or sell things to government, as part of governmentprocurement, then you have to declare the beneficial ownership, in other wordsthe ultimate ownership of the company.;内阁办公室部长汉考克!你的公司在世界上的哪个地方注册无关紧只要你在伦敦拥有物业,或作为政府采购的部分向政府卖东西,就必须申报受益所有权,换句话说就是公司的最终所有权.Mr Cameron will also announce plans for anew anti-corruption co-ordination centre in London and a wider corporateoffence for executives who fail to prevent fraud or money laundering insidetheir companies.卡梅伦还将宣布计在伦敦成立一个新的反腐败协调中心,以及把未能在其公司内部防止欺诈或洗钱的高管们纳入范围更广的公司犯Corruption is the cancer at the heart of somany of our problems in the world today, Mr Cameron wrote in the Guardian aheadof the summit.“腐败是今日世界处于我们众多问题核心的癌!卡梅伦峰会前在《卫报》发表文章说.It destroys jobs and holds back growth,costing the world economy billions of pounds every year. “它摧毁就业,抑制增长,让世界经济每年付出数十亿英镑的代!It traps the poorest in the most desperatepoverty as corrupt governments around the world siphon off funds and preventhard-working people from getting the revenues and benefits of growth that arerightfully theirs.“它使赤贫者因为世界各地的腐败政府侵吞资金而陷于最绝望的贫困中,使努力工作的人们无法得到他们本应得到的经济增长带来的收入和好! /201605/443178 What were they thinking? It is extraordinary to a succession of official reports arguing, rightly, that a vote to leave the EU would impose long-term damage and a short-term shock. What sort of government would run such a risk, particularly when the economy has barely recovered from the financial crisis of less than a decade ago? The answer is one that has put the needs of short-term party management above its responsibility for the country’s welfare. David Cameron, prime minister, might soon be known as the man who left the UK in far-from-splendid isolation.他们在想什么?看着一系列的官方报告正确说明退出欧盟将对英国造成长期损害及短期冲击,令人感到非同寻常。什么样的政府甘冒公投的风险——特别是在经济刚刚从不到10年前的金融危机中复苏之际?是,一个把短期政党管理需要置于对国民福利的责任之上的政府。英国首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)或许很快就会因使英国陷入不光的孤立而闻名。The Treasury has aly argued that leaving the EU might lower real gross domestic product by between 3.4 and 9.5 per cent in the long term. This is broadly in line with estimates from other reputable forecasters. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, a proponent of leaving, argues that the UK would enjoy a jump of 4 per cent in aggregate economic welfare after leaving the EU and adopting free trade (an unlikely choice). But this result is an outlier. It rests on implausible assumptions, not least on the impact of EU non-tariff barriers on domestic prices.英国财政部已表示,长远来看,退出欧盟或将使英国实际国内生产总GDP)下降3.4%.5%。这大致与其他受尊敬的预测者的估计相符。而持退欧的卡迪夫大Cardiff University)的帕特里#8226;明福Patrick Minford)则表示,退出欧盟并实行自由贸易(一个不大可能的选择)后,英国的总经济福利将激%。但这种结果是一种例外。其依据的是不合实际的假设,尤其是在欧盟非关税壁垒对国内物价的影响方面。The Treasury has now followed up with a report on the short-term consequences of a vote to leave. In summarising the results, George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has stated that the UK would suffer a “do-it-yourselfrecession if it decided to leave. One might better call it a “do-it-himselfrecession. For it was the government’s decision to take this risk.财政部现已就退欧的短期后果发布了新的报告。在总结这些后果时,财政大臣乔治#8226;奥斯George Osborne)表示,如果决定退欧的话,英国将遭受“自身造成的”衰退。人们或许会更形象地称之为“他自身造成的”衰退。因为是英国政府决定冒这种风险的。The new report’s main scenario predicts that GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to remain, unemployment would be 520,000 higher and the pound would be 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP could be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal Studies adds that, instead of an improvement of bn a year in the fiscal position, as the net contribution to the EU fell, the budget deficit might be between 0bn and 0bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise, sharply slowing the planned fiscal consolidation.这份新报告在设想的主要情景中预测,比起留在欧盟,退欧两年后英国GDP将下.6%,失业人数将多出52万人,英镑将下跌12%。在更糟糕的情景下,GDP可能下降6%,失业人数多2万,英镑下跌15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充表示,财政状况不但不会因省下向欧盟付的预算摊派款而得到每0亿英镑的改善019-20年的预算赤字还可能比留在欧盟高出200亿至400亿英镑,极大地拖累规划中的财政整固。Indeed, the Treasury argues, plausibly, that the very possibility of a vote to leave is aly having an impact on the economy. But an actual vote to do so in June’s referendum would crystallise this risk and create significant and immediate effects, via three channels.实际上,财政部似乎颇有道理地指出,退欧的可能性本身已对经济造成了影响。但假如6月公投结果真的持退欧的话,这种风险将变为现实,并且立即在三方面产生重大影响。The first of these would be the tendency of households and businesses to adjust at once to becoming permanently poorer. This would lead to significant cuts in consumption and investment.第一个影响将是,家庭、企业会立刻作出调整以适应长期变穷的状态。这将导致消费与投资的大幅缩减。The second effect would come from prolonged uncertainty about how the UK’s relations with the EU would work out. It is difficult to exaggerate the scale of this uncertainty. After a vote to leave, the country would not know the complexion of its new government, the UK’s desired approach to renegotiation of its relations with the EU, or the response of the other members, let alone any final outcome. The uncertainty could also be long-lasting. Even the formation of a new government and agreement on its new approach might prove difficult. The likely leaders of a new government have also said things in this campaign that must hinder the chances of reaching an amicable settlement with EU partners.第二个影响将来自英国与欧盟关系走向的长期不确定性。很难夸大这种不确定性。公投决定退出欧盟后,英国人将不知道新政府的倾向、英国重新谈判与欧盟的关系时希望采用的方式、或是欧盟其他成员国的反应,更不用说任何最终结果了。不确定性也会长期存在。甚至组建新政府以及就其处理与欧盟关系的新策略达成一致可能都有困难。可能成为新政府领导人的那些人还在这场运动中说了一些话,这些话肯定有损于英国与欧盟伙伴达成和解的机会。The third effect would be the shift in financial conditions. Markets would at once reassess the UK’s economic prospects. Asset prices, including the exchange rate (as the Bank of England has aly noted), are likely to adjust downwards immediately. An appreciable increase in the risk premia on UK assets could emerge. Asset price volatility would also increase. The BoE might face a difficult dilemma, since there is likely to be a simultaneous rise in expected inflation and a decline in expected output in the short term.第三个影响是金融环境的变化。市场会立刻重估英国的经济前景。正如英国央BoE)早已指出的,包括汇率在内的资产价格很可能立即下调。英国资产的风险溢价可能出现大幅上升。资产价格波动也将加剧。英国央行可能面临一种进退两难的境地,因为短期内可能同时出现预期通胀上升和预期产出下降并存的局面。Official sources have described, in painful and quite plausible detail, how far the referendum unleashed by this government is a risky and dangerous gamble with the health of a fragile post-crisis economy. This is apart from the risks to the future cohesion of the UK and, quite possibly, of the EU, too.官方消息人士曾以令人痛苦但似乎非常有道理的细节,描述本届政府发起的公投,是以后危机时代脆弱经济的健康为赌注进行的一场多么冒险和危险的。这还不包括对英国以及很有可能对欧盟未来凝聚力造成的风险。This referendum is, arguably, the most irresponsible act by a British government in my lifetime. To the objection that this is to deny democracy, one can respond that the country was a successful democracy well before it embarked upon such referendums. Furthermore, the right time for a referendum would be when the UK is asked to accept further treaty changes or some other significant alteration in its position in the bloc. Right now one can only hope that the country does not soon learn what it means to divorce in haste and repent at leisure.可以说,此次公投是我有生之年见过的英国政府最不负责任的行为。对于认为不进行公投就意味着拒绝民主的反对观点,我们可以回答,英国在开始进行此类公投很久前便已是成功的民主国家。此外,举行公投的合适时机应是英国被要求接受条约的进一步修订,或是接受英国在欧盟中地位的其他重大变化之时。现在,我们只能希望英国不会很快尝到匆忙退出的代价,不要事后追悔莫及。来 /201606/448011昆山哪里祛痣昆山宗仁卿医院激光去烫伤的疤多少钱

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