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2018年07月18日 22:29:47 | 作者:飞度咨询黑龙江新闻 | 来源:新华社
Among the deep-pocketed collectors of Chinese antique ceramics, few pieces arouse as much excitement as the small Ming dynasty-era bowls commonly known as the #39;chicken cups.#39; 在中国古代瓷器收藏圈里,鲜有藏品能够像明成化“鸡缸杯”(chicken cup)那样引得一众富豪收藏家趋之若鹜。The bowls, small enough to be held comfortably in the palm of the hand, were created between 1465 and 1487 and are named for the chickens painted on their sides. Only 19 are known to exist, and of those just four are in private hands, with the rest in museum collections. 鸡缸杯不足一掌大小,烧制于明代成化时期(公元1465至1487年),因其杯壁上画有公鸡母鸡,故称鸡缸杯。现存于世的鸡缸杯只有19只,其中四只在私人藏家手中,其余均被物馆收藏。But one of those four will be going up for sale on April 8 at a Sotheby#39;s auction in Hong Kong and is estimated to fetch as much as US.5 million. 但这四只鸡缸杯中将有一只现身4月8日的香港苏富比(Sotheby)拍卖会,估价高达3,850万美元。Part of the Meiyintang collection owned by Switzerland#39;s Zuellig family, this same bowl was also the last chicken cup to go up for auction, in 1999. At a Sotheby#39;s sale in Hong Kong, it brought US.7 million -- at the time, a record for a Chinese porcelain. 这只明成化斗鸡缸杯是瑞士裕利(Zuellig)家族“玫茵堂”(Meiyintang)的藏品,1999年最后一次现身拍卖会的鸡缸杯也正是这一只。在当年的香港苏富比拍卖会上,这只鸡缸杯拍出了370万美元的天价,刷新中国瓷器世界拍卖纪录。Prices for Chinese ceramics have skyrocketed since, but reverence for these cups has remained constant since imperial times. Several works of Chinese literature reference the chicken cups, often describing how emperors and nobles spent fortunes to obtain them in the 17th century. 此后中国瓷器价格一路飙高,但鸡缸杯的尊贵地位自帝王时代以来从未被动摇。几部中国文学作品曾经提到过鸡缸杯,均是描写17世纪的皇帝和贵族如何散尽千金,就为得到这样一只小小的杯子。#39;This is the crowning glory for collectors,#39; said Nicholas Chow, Sotheby#39;s expert in Chinese ceramics. But what makes this one so valuable? He explains: 苏富比的中国瓷器专家仇国仕(Nicholas Chow)说,对于藏友来说,拥有一只鸡缸杯是至高无上的荣耀。至于鸡缸杯为何价值连城,他给出了如下解释:Chenghua porcelains: The wares from this 15th-century period, known as the Chenghua era after the Ming dynasty emperor who ruled at the time, are regarded as #39;the peak in material refinement,#39; according to Mr. Chow. The imperial kilns of the period exercised strict quality control, and he likens Chenghua porcelains to silk. #39;It#39;s very sensuous -- the only porcelain you can tell blind,#39; he said. 成化瓷:据仇国仕介绍,烧制于15世纪明代成化年间的成化瓷被视为制瓷艺术的顶峰。当时的官窑产品质量极其讲究,仇国仕将其比作丝绸。他说,成化瓷的手感很特别,是唯一闭着眼睛都能摸出来的瓷器品种。Emperors love chickens: The painting is a naive, almost childish, color depiction of a rooster and a hen taking care of a young chick -- a parable for Confucian virtues that extend to an emperor#39;s looking after his subjects. The simplicity is what makes this cup so desirable, said Mr. Chow, and the artist#39;s #39;impressionistic#39; style is atypical for that time. 帝王锺爱“鸡”:这只鸡缸杯上所绘的是一只公鸡和一只母鸡带着一只小鸡的场景,色缤纷鲜明,画风率真可人,寓意帝王善待子民的儒家思想。仇国仕说,风格质 正是这只杯子如此受人喜爱的原因,这种写意画风是当时主要的艺术风格形式。Fakes abound: Mr. Chow said the chicken cups are the most-copied bowls in China, and even the Chenghua examples in museums have aroused suspicion. In a Sotheby#39;s catalog essay about next week#39;s chicken-cup sale, ceramics expert Regina Krahl wrote that former Sotheby#39;s Chairman Julian Thompson contested that the two examples at the Palace Museum in Beijing are fakes. (The museum declared in an official 1999 catalog that they are authentic.) Today, antique markets in China offer imitations for as little as a few yuan apiece. #39;It#39;s like hanging a copy of the Mona Lisa,#39; Mr. Chow said. #39;Everybody#39;s heard of the chicken cup.#39; 仿品众多:仇国仕说,鸡缸杯是中国被仿制最多的瓷器,甚至物馆里的一些藏品也被怀疑是后朝仿品。在下周苏富比的拍卖目录介绍中,瓷器专家康蕊君(Regina Krahl)写道,苏富比前董事长朱汤生(Julian Thompson)曾表示北京故宫物院收藏的两只明成化斗鸡缸杯是后朝仿品。(故宫物院在1999年的官方藏品目录中称它们是真品。)如今,在中国的古玩市场上,花几块钱就能买到一只鸡缸杯的仿品。仇国仕说,它就像是到处可见的“蒙娜丽莎”仿品,人人都听说过鸡缸杯。 /201404/284973Who makes a worse company chairman: one who is always scratching his head, or one who is off his head?哪种人当董事长更糟糕:永远在挠头的人,还是头脑发昏的人?I have been turning over the question of blockhead-versus-cokehead since the ex-chairman of Co-op Bank was a) filmed apparently handing over £300 for cocaine and crystal meth and b) told a Treasury select committee that the bank had £3bn in assets when it had £47bn.我一直在反复思考这个“傻瓜VS瘾君子”问题,起因是Co-op Bank的前董事长曾被拍到递出300英镑购买可卡因和冰毒的画面,他还曾对财政部的一个专门委员会表示,自己的拥有30亿英镑资产,其实该行的资产规模为470亿英镑。I’m not saying that Paul Flowers himself is either cokehead or blockhead, as I don’t know enough about him to judge. Instead I’m asking more broadly: if you were a shareholder of any company, which type would you be more appalled to find you had in a position of power?我并非意在指出保罗?弗劳尔斯(Paul Flowers)要么是个瘾君子,要么是个傻瓜,因为我对他的了解不足以做出判断。我的问题是更加广泛意义上的:如果你是一家公司的股东,哪种人执掌公司大权会让你更感不安?You could protest that cokeheads and blockheads go hand in hand; though which leads to which is hard to say. If you are on drugs, that could make your command of the facts a little hazy. (Though coke tends to make you wildly optimistic, so you’d be more likely to overestimate your assets 10-fold than the other way round.) On the other hand, if your command of the facts was hazy initially, that might drive you to coke as a way of dealing with your low self-esteem and the clawing fear of getting found out.你可以反驳,声称瘾君子常常也是傻瓜,虽然谁因谁果难以判断。如果你吸食毒品,你对事实的把握可能会有点糊涂。(不过毒品通常会让你异常乐观,因此你更有可能将自己的资产规模夸大十倍,而非反其道而行之。)而另一方面,如果你对事实的把握从一开始就稀里糊涂,这可能促使你走上吸毒的道路,以解决自己缺乏自尊的问题,并缓解害怕被人识破的百爪挠心般的焦虑感。Yet if you take the two types as distinct, the obvious answer is that the cokehead is more lethal. For a start, coke is illegal – and having a chairman arrested, as Mr Flowers was last week, never does any good to a company’s reputation. More than that, a coke habit can make people irritable and unpredictable, distort their judgment, lead to paranoid psychosis as well as doing nothing for the lining of their noses.但如果你认为这是两种完全不同类型的人,那么容易得出的结论是瘾君子危害更大。首先,毒品违法——公司董事长被捕(就像弗劳尔斯最近那样),对一个公司的声誉绝没有任何好处。更重要的是,吸毒成瘾可使人变得易怒急躁,不可预测,扭曲人的判断力,导致偏执的精神状态,对于鼻腔粘膜也绝无好处。None of that is desirable. But it is still better than being ruled by a blockhead. Anyone who is ignorant of the basic facts of a business can only do harm to a company.虽然以上这些都不令人满意,但仍好于由一个傻瓜来执掌公司大权。一个对企业业务的基本情况一无所知的人只能给这家公司带来损害。It is true that ignorance on the scale of Mr Flowers’ is exceptional (the Co-op’s structure is so idiosyncratic it made a virtue of having people on the board who knew nothing about banking). Yet my strong hunch is that there is a great deal of ignorance on most boards that may not be quite as jaw-dropping as at the Co-op, but is still worrying.像弗劳尔斯那样的极度无知确实罕见(Co-op Bank的企业构架是如此独特,以至于让对业一无所知的人加入董事会成了一件好事)。但我有一种强烈的直觉,即多数企业的董事会中都有很多无知的人,虽然情况或许不至于像Co-op Bank那样令人震惊,但也足够引人担忧。If I think of some of the directors I have come across, many have large and shaming gaps in their knowledge. These arise either because their markets have changed in ways they have not kept up with, or because they hop from one industry to another, and after a bit in a new one it becomes too embarrassing to ask: can someone explain how we actually make our money? Add to that the fact that businesses are increasingly complicated – and keeping up becomes increasingly hard.我在回想自己遇见过的董事时发现,很多人的知识结构都存在令人汗颜的巨大断层。这种情况产生的原因之一在于他们所处的市场环境发生了变化,而他们没有跟上形势,或者是因为他们从一个行业跳到了另一个行业,而在对新行业初涉皮毛之后,向人求教对他们来说变得过于难为情,他们不好意思问:有人能帮我解释一下我们究竟是怎么赚钱的吗?此外,商业模式正变得愈加复杂,跟上发展变得越来越难,这进一步加剧了董事们的知识断层。If ignorance is so common, how come we almost never hear of it? Politicians occasionally let their inner bonehead show – Sarah Palin was caught getting her Iran and Iraq confused – yet the people who rise to the top in business are worryingly good at keeping theirs hidden.如果董事们的无知如此普遍,为什么我们几乎从未听说?政客们偶尔会暴露出他们愚蠢的一面——莎拉?佩林(Sarah Palin)被人发现分不清伊朗和伊拉克——但升至商界顶层的人物似乎非常善于掩饰自己的无知,这很令人担忧。This is for three reasons. First, they delegate. Don’t know how big your assets are? Never mind – your finance director can answer that one.商界高层善于隐藏有三个原因。其一在于他们可以把任务分派下去。不知道公司的资产规模有多大?没关系——可以让财务总监来回答这个问题。Second, jargon and flannel come to their aid. “This is an issue currently out of my sightline, and I’ll revert going forward when I have some clarity around it” sounds more impressive than: no idea.其二,行业术语和废话可以助他们一臂之力。相对于“我不知道”,“这个问题目前不在我的关注范围内,当我对它有更多了解时我会重新回到这个话题上”听起来更上档次。Thirdly, when you are really senior, nobody ever calls your bluff. If a tiresome journalist asks a tricky question, then it is quite simple: you answer another question instead.其三,当你真的身居高位时,没有人会戳穿你的虚张声势。如果一个惹人生厌的记者问了一个刁钻的问题,接下来非常简单:你回答另一个问题作为替代。Indeed the only time that directors are really put on the spot is when they get hauled before the regulator or a select committee, where there is no finance director to field tough questions, and where bluster doesn’t work. But even then, they have time to prepare. When I was summoned before the Financial Services Authority (as a routine part of being a non-exec) I spent several weeks beforehand revising furiously.董事们唯一真的陷入困境的时刻,是当他们被传到监管当局或者专门委员会面前时,此时他们既不能找财务总监来替他们回答棘手问题,咆哮恐吓也失去了效力。但即便如此,他们仍有时间进行准备。当我被英国金融务(Financial Services Authority)传唤时(这是对待非执行董事的一种惯例),我就花了好几周的时间拼命复习。What is needed is a new system of fierce and random knowledge tests for all directors, just like drugs tests for sportsmen. Directors would be accosted at unpredictable times and forced to answer basic questions about their company, its performance, its risks, and the market in general. This would flush out the most lethal blockheads and focus the minds of all directors, all of the time.现在所亟需的是一个针对所有董事、强大而又随机的新知识测试系统,就像运动员的药检一样。董事们将会在不可预测的时间被问话,回答有关自身公司的基本问题,例如业绩、风险以及市场整体状况。这将有助于淘汰危害最大的傻瓜,并使所有董事在任何时间都精力集中。Just as Andy Murray recently almost missed getting to Buckingham Palace on time to collect his OBE because the drugs testers had showed up on his doorstep demanding a urine sample, so it should be for company directors. No excuses. No diverting the questions to someone else. No flannel. If you don’t know the answer, you’re out.安迪?穆雷(Andy Murray)几乎没能按时赶到白金汉宫领取他的大英帝国勋章(OBE),因为药检官员突然出现在他门前,要求他提供一份尿样。针对公司董事的测试也应如此。没有任何借口。不能将问题交由其他人代为回答。不允许说废话。如果你不知道,就将被扫地出门。 /201312/267296China#39;s Internet regulator on Wednesday reprimanded the country#39;s two major web portals for their failure to prevent a sex taken in a Beijing fitting room from going viral online.周三,就未能阻止北京一家试衣间内拍摄的不雅视频在网上大肆流传,国家互联网监管机构向国内两家门户网站进行问责。The shot on a smartphone and posted early on Wednesday shows a young Chinese couple having sex in a fitting room. The offscreen broadcast indicated that the was taken in a Uniqlo store in Sanlitun, an upmarket shopping district.该视频使用智能手机拍摄的,并于周三早些时候上传到网上。视频内容是一对情侣在试衣间的性爱画面,画面外的广播声音显示是在北京高档购物区——三里屯的优衣库店内。The went viral on both microblogging platforms of Sina and Tencent, the country#39;s two major Internet companies, drawing fierce condemnation from Internet users.视频在国内两大互联网微平台新浪和腾讯上大肆传播,引发网友强烈谴责。Internet users are demanding strong action in the case, considered by many to be ;vulgar marketing,; according to a statement issued by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC).据中国网信办发布的一份声明称,网友要求针对这种“低俗营销”采取强硬措施。A CAC official said the sp of the had breached some bottom lines and violated core socialist values. The official urged Sina and Tencent to increase their awareness of social responsibility, strengthen management and cooperate with the authority in investigating the case.以为网信办官员称,该视频的传播违背底线,违反了社会这一核心价值观,要求新浪和腾讯增强社会责任意识,加强管理,并配合有关部门调查此案。The official said individuals suspected of propagating pornography should be held criminally responsible, adding that the CAC will keep high pressure on pornography in cyberspace.该官员称,涉嫌传播淫秽色情信息者要负刑事责任,同时强调网信办将继续加强对网络色情信息的打击力度。Beijing police said Wednesday on its Sina Weibo account that the police in the Chaoyang district have noticed the clip incident and are now investigating the case.周三,北京警方通过新浪微发声,称朝阳分局已经注意到该视频,并正在对此案进行调查。China#39;s criminal law stipulates that those disseminating obscene books, films, pictures and clips could face up to two years#39; imprisonment, while those who make the obscene products to earn profit could receive up to life imprisonment.中国刑法规定,对于传播淫秽书籍、电影、图片和视频的,将面临最高两年有期徒刑,对于制作淫秽物品平获利者,最高将面临终身监禁。Uniqlo, one of the world#39;s biggest ;fast-fashion; chains, on Wednesday made a statement denying any involvement in the .作为世界上最大的“快速时尚”连锁店之一的优衣库,在周三发表一份声明称,与该视频没有任何关联。The Japanese clothing chain posted a statement on its website and blog asking customers to ;abide by social moral standards, maintain social justice, and use the fitting rooms properly.;这家日本衣连锁品牌在其官网和客中呼吁消费者“遵守社会公德,维护社会正义,正确妥善使用试衣间”。A police officer interviewed by the Beijing News said that the couple will be punished if they are found to deliberately sp the footage. If not, he said, whoever originally posted the clip will be held responsible.一位警察在接受新京报采访时称,如果这对情侣是故意传播该视频,将受到处罚;如果不是,无论最初是谁发布的这段视频都将担负责任。 /201507/386271

China’s property prices are up 9.9 per cent from a year ago, the fastest pace of gains in 2013.中国11月房价同比上涨9.9%,是2013年迄今以来涨幅最大的一个月。New homes cost 9.9 per cent more in November then they did a year earlier.周三早间,路透社(Reuters)编纂的数据和中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)的信息均显示,11月新房价格比一年前高出9.9%,而10月份的同比增幅为9.6%。This followed a 9.6 per cent annual gain in October, data compiled by Reuters and taken from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed early on Wednesday.对70座城市的房价调查显示,69座城市的房价同比上涨,66座城市的房价月度环比上涨。The survey of prices in 70 cities showed prices were up in 69 cities from a year ago, with monthly gains in 66 of the cities.尽管中国政府试图给房地产市场降温,但房价仍在不断上涨。中国政府现在左右为难,因为它试图鼓励经济增长和放贷,而此举使房地产市场保持火热。This comes despite efforts from Beijing to cool the property market. The government is caught in a bind as it also tries to encourage economic growth and bank lending, which keeps the real estate market hot.中国最大几座城市的涨幅继续领跑。上海和北京的房价同比分别上涨18.2%和16.3%,而上月同比增幅分别为17.8%和16.8%。 /201312/269491

ANGELS CAMP, Calif. — IN a normal year, no one in California looks twice at a neighbor’s lawn, that mane of bluegrass thriving in a sun-blasted desert. Or casts a scornful gaze at a fresh-planted almond grove, saplings that now stand accused of future water crimes. Or wonders why your car is conspicuously clean, or whether a fish deserves to live when a cherry tree will die.加利福尼亚州天使营——在正常年份里,加利福尼亚州没有任何人,会往邻居家的草坪多看一眼那荒漠骄阳下繁茂生长的六月禾草,也不会有人将鄙夷的眼光投向刚种下不久的扁桃树——现如今,这种树苗被指太过浪费水,会在未来导致水资源短缺。同样不会有人怀疑,你家的汽车怎么那么干净?或者去思考,该活下来的,是一条鱼还是一颗樱桃树?Of course, there is nothing normal about the fourth year of the great drought: According to climate scientists, it may be the worst arid spell in 1,200 years. For all the fields that will go fallow, all the forests that will catch fire, all the wells that will come up dry, the lasting impact of this drought for the ages will be remembered, in the most exported term of California start-ups, as a disrupter.当然,这场进入了第4个年头的大旱灾没有任何正常可言:根据气候科学家的说法,这可能是1200年以来最严重的连续干旱期。因为那些将会被迫停耕的农田、着火的森林和干涸的水井,本轮干旱的持久影响将被铭记良久。用加州初创公司最出名的用语来说,这是一种“干扰因子”。“We are embarked upon an experiment that no one has ever tried,” said Gov. Jerry Brown in early April, in ordering the first mandatory statewide water rationing for cities.在4月初的时候,加州州长杰瑞·布朗(Jerry Brown)史上首次下令施行全州范围内的强制性市镇用水配给制度。“我们正在进行前无古人的尝试,”他说。Surprising, perhaps even disappointing to those with schadenfreude for the nearly 39 million people living in year-round sunshine, California will survive. It’s not going to blow away. The economy, now on a robust rebound, is not going to collapse. There won’t be a Tom Joad load of S.U.V.s headed north. Rains, and snow to the high Sierra, will eventually return.不过,让那些对全年生活在阳光之下的3900万加州居民感到幸灾乐祸的人意外,甚或失望的是,加州将存活下来,而不会就此毁灭。这里的经济在强劲反弹,不会崩溃。也不会有成群结队的越野车像汤姆·约德(Tom Joad,《愤怒的葡萄》中的主角,因干旱、经济困难、农业变革、止赎和沙尘暴等原因逃离家园前往加州——译注)那样向北逃荒而去。雨水终将再次降临,内华达山脉的积雪也将重现。But California, from this drought onward, will be a state transformed. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was human-caused, after the grasslands of the Great Plains were ripped up, and the land thrown to the wind. It never fully recovered. The California drought of today is mostly nature’s hand, diminishing an Eden created by man. The Golden State may recover, but it won’t be the same place.然而,经历了这次大旱,加州将改头换面。上世纪30年代的沙尘暴属人为所致,是因为北美大平原的草地被毁,土地任由风化侵蚀。由此造成的损害从未完全恢复。加州目前的旱情则大多源于自然原因,破坏的是这座人造的伊甸园。人称“金州”的加州也许能够从中恢复过来,但一切都将不同于以往。Looking to the future, there is also the grim prospect that this dry spell is only the start of a “megadrought,” made worse by climate change. California has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs. What if the endless days without rain become endless years?展望未来,还存在一种严酷的可能性,也就是本轮持续的干旱不过是一次“特大旱灾”的起始阶段,并会因气候变化而恶化。加州的水库中目前仅剩1年左右的供水量。假如连续无降水的时间从按日子计变成了按年头计,又将如何?In the cities of a changed California, brown is the new green. A residential lawn anywhere south of, say, Sacramento, is aly considered an indulgence. “If the only person walking on your lawn is the person mowing it,” said Felicia Marcus, chairwoman of the State Water Resources Control Board, then maybe it should be taken out. The state wants people to convert lawns to drought-tolerant landscaping, or fake grass.在经历这种变化的加州大小市镇,绿色植被正变成褐色。在诸如萨克拉门托以南的地区,家庭草坪已被视作某种奢侈品。加州水资源管理委员会(State Water Resources Control Board)主席费利西娅·马库斯(Felicia Marcus)说,“如果你家草坪唯一的过客是割草的人,”那也许就该放弃了。州里希望民众把草坪的植被换成耐旱的品种,或者种上人造草皮。Artificial lakes filled with Sierra snowmelt will become baked-mud valleys, surrounded by ugly bathtub rings. Some rivers will dry completely — at least until a normal rain year. A few days ago, there was a bare trickle from the Napa, near the town of St. Helena, flowing through some of the most valuable vineyards on the planet. The state’s massive plumbing system, one of the biggest in the world, needs adequate snow in order to serve farmers in the Central Valley and techies in Silicon Valley. This year, California set a record low Sierra snowpack in April — 5 percent of normal — following the driest winter since records have been kept.靠内华达山脉的融雪补充水源的人工湖将被晒成硬邦邦的土质谷地,四周满是丑陋的污渍。一些河流会完全干涸,而这种情况至少是要延续到雨水充沛的年份。就在几天前,圣海伦娜附近的纳帕河仅有一条涓涓细流,流经地球上最具价值的一些葡萄园。加州庞大的管道输水系统位居世界前列,却需要合适的雪量才能为中央谷地的务农者和硅谷的技术人员提供务。经历了有纪录以来干旱程度最严重的冬季之后,加州内华达山脉今年4月份的积雪量创下历史新低,仅为正常年份的5%。To Californians stunned by their bare mountains, there was no more absurd moment in public life recently than when James Inhofe, the Republican senator from Oklahoma who is chairman of the environment and public works committee, held up a snowball in February as evidence of America’s hydraulic bounty in the age of climate change.对于因山顶光秃而感到震惊的加州人来说,近期公共生活中最荒诞的一幕莫过于,参议院环境与公共事务委员会主席、来自俄克拉何马州的共和党人詹姆斯·英霍夫(James Inhofe)在2月份的时候手拿一个雪球,以此明在气候变化的背景下美国仍水资源充沛。You can see the result of endless weeks of cloudless skies in New Melones Lake, here in Calaveras County in the foothills east of the Central Valley, where Mark Twain made a legend of a jumping frog. The state’s fourth largest reservoir, holding water for farmers, and for fish downstream, is barely 20 percent full. It could be completely drained by summer’s end.在中央谷地东部丘陵地带的卡拉韦拉斯县——马克·吐温(Mark Twain)让当地的跳蛙出了名——可以看到连续多周晴朗无云的天气对新梅洛内斯湖的影响。这座湖是加州第四大的水库,为务农者和下游的鱼类储存水源,如今却连20%的容量都没达到。今夏结束的时候,它可能会完全干涸。It’s a sad sight — a warming puddle, where the Stanislaus River once ran through it. At full capacity, with normal rainfall, New Melones should have enough water for nearly two million households for a year.真是伤感——斯塔尼斯劳斯河曾经流经的地方,现在成了一座逐渐干涸的小池塘。容量饱和、雨量正常的时候,新梅洛内斯湖本应足以为近200万家庭供水1年。Even worse is the Lake McClure reservoir, impounding the spectral remains of the Merced River as it flows out of Yosemite National Park. It’s at 10 percent of capacity. In a normal spring, the reservoir holds more than 600,000 acre-feet of water. As April came to a close, it was at 104,000 acre-feet — with almost no snowmelt on the way. (The measurement is one acre filled to a depth of a foot, or 325,851 gallons.) That’s the surface disruption in a state that may soon be unrecognizable in places.更糟糕的是麦克卢尔湖水库。这里储存的是默塞德河流经约塞米蒂国家公园后剩下的规模不定的水资源。在正常的春季,这座水库的水量逾7.4亿立方米,而到今年4月将尽的时候,却只容纳了1.5亿立方米,而且几乎没有融雪可以补充。加州的不少地方可能很快就会变得面目全非,这些不过是表面的变化。The morality tale behind California’s verdant prosperity will most certainly change. In the old narrative, the evil city took water from powerless farmers. Swimming pools in greater Los Angeles were filled with liquid that could have kept orchards alive in the Owens Valley, to the north.加州繁荣的植被经济背后的道德逻辑也很可能会有所转变。旧日的说法是,邪恶的市政府从务农者手中抢夺水源。大洛杉矶地区的游泳池用掉的水,本可以让欧文斯谷往北的果园均得以健康生长。It was hubris, born in the words of the city’s chief water engineer, William Mulholland, when he opened the gates of the Los Angeles Aqueduct in 1913 with an immortal proclamation: “There it is. Take it.”1913年的时候,洛杉矶水务部门的总工程师威廉·马尔霍兰(William Mulholland)用一句传世的宣言开启了洛杉矶引水渠的闸门:“水就在那里,尽管取而用之。”此番话语,尽显傲慢。But now, just about everyone in California knows that it requires a gallon of water to grow a single almond, or that agriculture accounts for 80 percent of the water used by humans here. Meanwhile, the cities have become leaders in conservation. It takes 106 gallons of water to produce an ounce of beef — which is more than the average San Francisco Bay Area resident uses in a day. Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles wants to reduce the amount of water the city purchases by 50 percent in the next decade, cutting back through aggressive use of wastewater and conservation.然而到了今天,加州几乎每个人都知道:种出一粒扁桃,需要耗费1加仑的水(约合3.79升);农业消耗了本州80%的人类用水量。与此同时,这里的各座市镇成为了节水方面的先锋。每生产1盎司(约合28克)的牛肉需要耗费106加仑的水,比旧金山湾区居民的人均日用水量还多。洛杉矶市长埃里克·加希提(Eric Garcetti)希望,在未来10年间将该市的购水量削减50%,而途径是大量利用回收废水及节水。It’s outlandish, urban critics note, for big farm units to be growing alfalfa — which consumes about 20 percent of the state’s irrigation water — or raising cattle, in a place with a third of the rainfall of other states. And by exporting that alfalfa and other thirsty crops overseas, the state is essentially shipping its precious water to China.城市里的批评人士指出,在降水量仅为其他地方三分之一的加州,让大农场养牛或种苜蓿实属荒谬。仅苜蓿种植就消耗了加州20%左右的灌溉用水。而通过将苜蓿等耗水作物出口海外,加州实际上是在把宝贵的水资源输送给中国。Still, casting California farmers — who produce about half of the nation’s fruits, nuts and vegetables — as crony capitalist water gluttons may not be entirely fair. Yes, the water is subsidized, through taxpayer-funded dams, canals and pumping systems. But that water, in some cases, ends up as habitat for birds and wildlife. As it drains away, it can recharge badly depleted underground aquifers. Farmers have aly let more than 400,000 acres go fallow and took a billion hit last year. They may add 600,000 acres to that total this year. Almonds, after all, are a healthy food source.然而,把承担着全国水果、坚果和蔬菜产量一半的加州农民,形容成吞噬水资源的裙带资本家,也许是有失公允的。没错,通过纳税人出资修建水坝、渠道和水泵系统,水是得到公共补贴的。但在某些情况下,这些水会成为鸟类和野生动物的栖息地。随着水渗入地下,严重退化的地下含水层可以得到喘息之机。目前,已有超过40万英亩的土地休耕,加州农民去年为此承受了20亿美元的损失。今年可能还会再增加60万英亩的休耕面积。而扁桃仁毕竟还是一种健康的食物来源。The new morality tale becomes further muddled when you consider that San Francisco, praised for its penurious water ways, gets its life-supporting liquid from the Hetch Hetchy dam, in Yosemite. Many people, dating from the sainted John Muir, believe that flooding that mountain valley was one of the bigger crimes against nature in California history.在用水方面以小气著称的旧金山,生活用水依靠约塞米蒂的赫奇-赫奇水坝,这就让眼下这则道义故事的情节愈发错综复杂起来。很多人认为,淹没那里的山谷是加州历史上对自然犯下的最严重罪行之一,这种说法最早出自如今已经被视为圣人的约翰·缪尔(John Muir)。And not every city is Spartan with its water. On any given day you can find, as I did in a new housing development in the foothills east of Sacramento, water running down the street — at a flow rate that looked bigger than that coming from the anemic Merced River. It was pouring onto a grass median strip, and then spilling over, in a development called the Estates at Blackstone.并非所有城市在用水上都能厉行节约。水在大街上白白流着的情形司空见惯,我在萨克拉门托东部山麓的一处新住宅楼盘中就看到了——流量似乎要高过日趋干涸的美熹德河。在一处叫做黑石庄园(Estates at Blackstone)的楼盘里,水被不断灌入一条绿化隔离带,然后满溢到路上。Or consider that wealthy communities — say, Portola Valley, woodsy home to many an environmentally conscious tech multimillionaire — use far more water per capita than do the poor of Compton, in the Los Angeles area. When cost is no object, there is very little incentive to cut back.再看看那些富人社区——比如绿树成荫的波托拉谷(Portola Valley),许多有环保意识的亿万富豪就住在这里——人均用水量远比洛杉矶地区的穷人社区康普顿要高得多。当费用不在考虑时,也就很难找到节水的动力了。But there is no getting around the fact that agriculture, for all its water needs, still produces barely 2 percent of the state’s gross product, and employs only about 3 percent of its workers.然而无法回避的事实是,水需求如此之高的农业,只产出了全州总产值的2%,雇佣了仅3%左右的工人。Fair or not, it seems incongruous that farmers in the San Joaquin Valley are still planting new almond trees — they’ve nearly doubled the crop since 2005 — while people in the cities kill their lawns and dash in and out of low-flow showers.公平与否暂且不论,圣华金谷的农民至今仍在增种扁桃树,这似乎是有些不合时宜的。自2005年至今,这种作物的规模将近翻倍,而城市里的人们却在放弃他们的草坪,或是在淋浴头的涓涓细流下匆匆洗澡。The idea that California could have it all — a pool in every suburban backyard, new crops in a drought, wild salmon in rivers now starved of oxygen — is fading fast. There is only so much more “pop per drop,” as Marcus, the State Water Resources Control Board chairwoman, said, or neighbor snitching on neighbor, until the urban majority resists and demands a change in allocation.在加利福尼亚州每个郊区居民的后院建一个游泳池,在干旱地区种植更多作物,拥有野生鲑鱼(它们现在正饱受缺氧之苦),这些想法目前正在迅速消退。这里现在只有加州水资源管理委员会主席马库斯女士所说的“珍惜每一滴水”,或邻里之间互相监督,直到城市中的大多数人进行抵抗并要求在供水配给上做出改变。What will come, then, from this disrupting drought is likely to be a shift of power. The urban “almond shaming” chorus is quick to note that the crop uses enough water to support 75 percent of the state#39;s population. In other words, there would be no water shortage in San Diego or Los Angeles if nut growers shut off the pumps.这场严重的干旱所带来的很可能是力量的转变。城市中的“杏仁之耻”之歌(种植杏仁需要消耗大量水——译注)告诉人们,种植该种作物需要的水分足以持加州75%的人口。换句话说,如果坚果种植者切断水泵,圣地亚哥或洛杉矶将不会有缺水问题。“Imagine if somebody ever said, `Let#39;s have a vote on how to use California#39;s water,”#39; said Daniel Beard, a former Bureau of Recreation commissioner and a critic of federal dam building. “That#39;s the last thing big agricultural interests would want.”“想象一下如果有人说,‘让我们就加州如何使用水源进行一次投票’,主要的农业利益相关方是最不希望见到这种情况的。”丹尼尔·比尔德说,比尔德是前休憩局(Bureau of Recreation)专员,同时是一位联邦大坝修建的批评者。The food industry is ripe for disruption. The land that has been left fallow now in the Central Valley is still less than 5 percent of all the irrigation acreage in California. Another 5 percent would leave most of the industry standing, and leaner. Low-value, high-water crops would disappear, as is aly happening.食品行业的变局时机已成熟。目前在中央山谷已经休耕的土地仅占加州灌溉面积的不到5%。再增加5%,行业的大部分将能存活下来,并且更加精练。低价值、高水耗的作物会消失,这一点已经在发生。Absent a vote of the people, the free market could end up as the decider. The big city water districts have more than enough money to buy farm water in a freewheeling exchange. Indeed, they’ve been making numerous purchases for years — though limited by complex water contracts and infrastructure that makes it difficult to pipe large amounts from one place to the other.在没有公众投票的情况下,自由市场会成为裁决者。在交易不受限制的情况下,大城市供水区完全有能力以任意价格购买农业用水。事实上,多年来它们已经做出了许多收购——尽管在复杂的用水合同和基础设施制约下,将大量的水从一处输送到另一处是有困难的。In addition, one fear of making water an open-market commodity is that rich and politically powerful communities would get all the clean water they needed, while poor public districts would be left out. A class system around breathable air has aly developed in China. Is abundant water the next must-have possession of the 1 percent?此外,将水变成一种自由市场商品的办法还存在一个隐忧,那就是届时权贵阶层也许能尽情取用清洁的水,而贫穷的公共社区就无缘消受了。在中国,围绕着可呼吸的空气已经形成了一个阶级体系。充足的用水会成为又一个权贵的身份象征吗?Agriculture will not give up its perch atop the power pyramid without a fight. Water that goes from the mountains to the sea is a waste, farmers say. The drought is “a man-made” disaster, as Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard executive who will likely run for the Republican presidential nomination, claims. She blames environmentalists for blocking major dam projects.农业不会将自己在权力金字塔尖的地位拱手让出。农民们说,让水从山间流向大海是暴殄天物。可能会角逐共和党总统候选人提名的前惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)高管卡莉·菲奥里纳(Carly Fiorina)声称,旱灾是“一场人为”灾难。她将此归罪于阻挠大型水坝工程的环保人士。“California is a classic case of liberals being willing to sacrifice other people’s lives and livelihoods at the altar of their ideology,” she said on Glenn Beck’s radio program a few weeks ago. Of course, one of those elites was Ronald Reagan, who as governor signed legislation in 1973 that protected the Eel River in Northern California from dam builders.“自由派会用他人的生命和生活作祭品,供奉自己的意识形态,加州就是一个经典案例,”她在几周前参加格伦·贝克(Glenn Beck)的电台节目时说。她说的那些精英人士,当然就包括罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)了,他在1973年作为州长签署了一份法案,旨在让北加州的鳗河免遭水坝建设者的侵扰。“The environment is aly taking a big hit in this drought,” said Ellen Hanak, director of the Water Policy Center at the nonprofit Public Policy Institute of California. “My sense is that Californians are pretty supportive of both a strong agricultural economy and a healthy environment.”“在这次旱灾中,环境已然遭受重创,”加州公共政策研究所(Public Policy Institute of California)的水政策中心(Water Policy Center)主任艾伦·哈纳克(Ellen Hanak)说。“我的感觉是,加州人对强劲的农业经济和健康的环境都是非常持的。”Big new reservoir projects — a return of the concrete empire — are doubtful. Without a government subsidy, cost is the biggest obstacle. Farmers certainly aren#39;t going to pay the billions now footed by federal taxpayers. And then: Where is the “new” water going to come from? Underground, wells are probing ever deeper, sucking aquifers dry, the land sinking at a dramatic rate. Overhead, the sky is unreliable.新建大型水库工程——回到混凝土帝国——同样受到质疑。没有政府的津贴,成本将是最大的障碍。农民当然不会自掏腰包出资亿万美元,这些钱现在是由联邦纳税人付的。那么,“新的”水源从哪里来呢?在地下,地下井被前所未有地深挖,地下砂石含水层变得干旱,地面沉降速度可观。在头顶上,天空同样不可依靠。Desalination, making seawater potable, is another option, which Carlsbad, north of San Diego, is pursuing with a huge plant under construction. Australia went down this road during its epic drought in the 2000s. But the plants proved to be so prohibitively expensive to run that four of them were mothballed. Billions were spent without producing a drop of clean water.将海水脱盐以便饮用是另一个选择。圣地亚哥北部的卡尔斯巴德就正在建造一个大型的海水脱盐工厂。澳大利亚在21世纪初的大干旱时期也走过这条路。但此类工厂已被实造价过高,他们其中的4个已经封存。花费数十亿元却没有造出一滴纯净水。What California still has, in great supply, is ingenuity. Three years ago, Mitt Romney compared the state to bankrupt Greece. It was laughed at and written off by conservative pundits. California now has a budget surplus and led the nation in job growth last year — far outpacing Texas.加州依然拥有取之不竭的创造力。3年前米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)将这个州比作破产的希腊。保守派的专家大老对它大加嘲弄和鄙夷。如今的加州已经实现预算盈余,去年的就业增长全国领先——远超德克萨斯。The drought may indeed be a long overdue bill for creating an oasis civilization. But therein lies a solution. The Golden State is an invention, with lives to match. If the drought continues, California will be forced to rely even more on what has long sustained it — imagination. Not a bad thing to have too much of.也许这场旱灾的确是对多年来建造绿洲文明所欠债务的一次清算。但它是可以解决的。“黄金之州”是一个发明,这里的生活是与此相称的。如果干旱继续下去,加州将比以往更加依赖一直在撑它的东西——想象力。这东西是不嫌多的。 /201505/373436

BERLIN — A week at the American Academy in Berlin leaves me with two contradictory feelings: one is that Germany today deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and the other is that Germany tomorrow will have to overcome its deeply ingrained post-World War II pacifism and become a more serious, activist global power. And I say both as a compliment.柏林——在柏林美国学院(American Academy)度过的一周,给我留下两个相互矛盾的感受:一是今天的德国理应得到一座诺贝尔和平奖,二是明天的德国必须摒弃二战以来根深蒂固的和平主义,成为一股更威严、更主动的全球力量。两者都是一种赞誉。On the first point, what the Germans have done in converting almost 30 percent of their electric grid to solar and wind energy from near zero in about 15 years has been a great contribution to the stability of our planet and its climate. The centerpiece of the German Energiewende, or energy transformation, was an extremely generous “feed-in tariff” that made it a no-brainer for Germans to install solar power (or wind) at home and receive a predictable high price for the energy generated off their own rooftops.关于第一点,德国人已经把电网中将近三成的电力来源转换成太阳能和风能,大概15年前这个比例接近零,这对我们这个星球和气候的稳定性是有重大意义的。德国的Energiewende(能源转型)的核心是“上网电价补贴”(feed-in tariff),该政策给出的条件极为优厚,让德国人毫不犹豫地开始在家中安装太阳能(或风能),而且自家屋顶产生的能源能够卖出可预见的高价。There is no denying that the early days of the feed-in tariff were expensive. The subsidies cost billions of euros, paid for through a surcharge on everyone’s electric bill. But the goal was not simply to buy more renewable energy: It was to create demand that would drive down the cost of solar and wind to make them mainstream, affordable options. And, in that, Energiewende has been an undiluted success. With price drops of more than 80 percent for solar, and 55 percent for wind, zero-carbon energy is now competitive with fossil fuels here.不可否认的是,上网电价补贴在初期代价会非常大。数十亿欧元的补贴,是通过增收所有人的电费来付的。但这样做的目的不只是购买更多可再生能源:它要创造需求,以压低太阳能和风能的成本,把它们变成主流的、廉价的能源选项。在这一点上,Energiewende获得了无可争议的成功。太阳能电价降幅超80%,风能降幅55%,现在零排放能源跟化石燃料比是有竞争力的。“In my view the greatest success of the German energy transition was giving a boost to the Chinese solar panel industry,” said Ralf Fücks, the president of the Heinrich-B#246;ll-Stiftung, the German Green Party’s political foundation. “We created the mass market, and that led to the increased productivity and dramatic decrease in cost.” And all this in a country whose northern tip is the same latitude as the southern tip of Alaska!“在我看来,德国能源转型的最大成功在于促进了中国太阳能产业的发展,”德国绿党(Green Party)下属政治基金会海因里希·伯尔(Heinrich-B#246;ll-Stiftung)的会长阿尔夫·富克斯(Ralf Fücks)说。“我们在这一领域创造了大众市场,从而提高生产效率,大幅压低成本。”这一切,都是由一个国土北端跟阿拉斯加南端在同一纬度上的国家实现的!This is a world-saving achievement. And, happily, as the price fell, the subsidies for new installations also dropped. The Germans who installed solar ended up making money, which is why the program remains popular, except in coal-producing regions. Today, more than 1.4 million German households and cooperatives are generating their own solar/wind electricity. “There are now a thousand energy cooperatives operated by private people,” said the energy economist Claudia Kemfert.这是一项拯救世界的成就。而且令人欣喜的是,随着价格的下降,对新装用户的补贴也下降了。安装了太阳能板的德国人最终是赚钱的,这就是为什么该项目始终很受欢迎,只有产煤区例外。目前德国有140多万户家庭和协作组织在使用自己的太阳能/风能电力。“现在有上千个私立能源协作组织在运行,”能源经济学家克劳迪娅·肯福尔特(Claudia Kemfert)说。Oliver Krischer, the vice chairman of the Green Party’s parliamentary group, told me: “I have a friend who comes home, and, if the sun is shining, he doesn’t even say hello to his wife. He first goes downstairs and looks at the meter to see what [electricity] he has produced himself. ... The idea now is that energy is something you can [produce] on your own. It’s a new development.” And it has created so much pushback against the country’s four major coal/nuclear utilities that one of them, E.On, just split into two companies — one focusing on squeezing the last profits from coal, oil, gas and nuclear, while the other focuses on renewables. Germans jokingly call them “E.Off” and “E.On.”绿党议会党团副主席奥列佛·科舍尔(Oliver Krischer)告诉我:“我有个朋友,在有太阳的日子,到家都顾不上跟妻子打招呼,会径直到楼下去查电表,看看自己发了多少[电]。现在有了能源可以自己来[生产]的观念。这是个进展。”该国的四大煤电/核电公司受到极大冲击,以至于其中意昂集团(E.On)分拆成了两个公司——一个专注于榨取煤炭、石油、天然气和核能最后的一点利润,另一个专注可再生能源。德国人开玩笑说它们分别叫“E.Off”和“E.On”。One problem: Germany still has tons of cheap, dirty lignite coal that is used as backup power for wind and solar, because cleaner natural gas is more expensive and nuclear is being phased out.这里有一个问题:德国仍然有大量廉价、肮脏的褐煤,用来作为风能和太阳能的后备,因为更清洁的天然气要更贵,而核能正被逐步淘汰。So if that’s the story on renewable power, how about national power? Two generations after World War II, Germany’s reticence to project any power outside its borders is deeply ingrained in the political psyche here. That is a good thing, given Germany’s past. But it is not sustainable. There is an impressive weight to Germany today — derived from the quality of its governing institution, its rule of law, and the sheer power of its economy built on midsize businesses — that is unique in Europe.可再生电力是这样,那么国家势力的情况如何呢?经过二战后两代人的发展,不愿意将自己的力量伸展到国境之外的心态,已在德国政治中深深扎根。考虑到历史,这是好事。但这是不可持续的。以当今德国的地位之重要,在欧洲绝无仅有——这是源于它在行政制度、法治方面的高水准,以及基于中型企业的强势经济。When you talk to German officials about Greece, their main complaint is not about Greek fiscal policy, which is better lately, but about the rot and corruption in Greece’s governing institutions. The Greeks “couldn’t implement the structural reforms they needed if they wanted to,” one German financial official said to me. Athens’s institutions are a mess.当你跟德国官员谈起希腊时,他们的主要不满不是希腊的财政政策——这方面近来已经好转了——而是它的政府机构的腐败。一位德国财政官员跟我说,希腊人“无法实施结构性改革,有这个意愿也做不到。”希腊的政府部门一团糟。With America less interested in Europe, Britain fading away both from the European Union and the last vestiges of it being a global military power, France and Italy economically hobbled and most NATO members shrinking their defense budgets, I don’t see how Germany avoids exercising more leadership. Its economic sanctions are aly the most important counter to Russian aggression in Ukraine. And in the Mediterranean Sea, where Europe now faces a rising tide of refugees (and where Russia and China just announced that their navies will hold a joint exercise in mid-May), Germany will have to catalyze some kind of E.U. naval response.美国对欧洲的兴趣在减少,英国正淡出欧盟,而最后仅存的那点作为全球性军事力量的身份,也将荡然无存,法国和意大利的经济不振,大多数北约(NATO)国家都在缩减国防预算,德国发挥更多领导作用,在我看来是不可避免的。它对俄罗斯的经济制裁,目前是对抗该国对乌克兰的进犯的最重要手段。此外在地中海,欧洲要面对一股越来越汹涌的难民潮(而俄罗斯和中国刚宣布,两国海军五月中旬会在那里举行联合军事演习),德国别无选择,只能力主欧盟海上力量进行某种回应。The relative weight of German power vis-à-vis the rest of Europe just keeps growing, but don’t say that out loud here. A German foreign policy official put their dilemma this way: “We have to get used to assuming more leadership and be aware of how reluctant others are to have Germany lead — so we have to do it through the E.U.”德国跟其他欧洲国家在影响力上的差距还会进一步拉大,但话不能说太直白。一位德国外交政策官员表达了他们的两难境地:“我们要做好担负更多领导角色的准备,并且要清楚,其他国家有多不情愿让德国来带头——所以我们必须通过欧盟行事。”Here’s my prediction: Germany will be Europe’s first green, solar-powered superpower. Can those attributes coexist in one country, you ask? They’re going to have to.我的预测:德国会是欧洲第一个绿色的、由太阳能驱动的超级大国。你也许会问,一个国家能同时具备这几个属性吗?他们别无选择。 /201505/374189

The World Bank pledged up to 0m in emergency funding to help fight the Ebola virus in west Africa, as the death toll in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea mounts.随着埃拉病毒在利比里亚、塞拉利昂和几内亚造成的死亡人数日益增高,世界(World Bank)承诺将向西非提供总计2亿美元紧急资金,以抗击埃拉。Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, said the funds would provide “critically needed support for the response to stop further transmission of Ebola” within the three nations, which“would prevent new infections in neighbouring at risk countries”.世行行长金墉(Jim Yong Kim)表示,该基金将“为阻止埃拉病毒(在这三国)继续传播提供急需的持”,这些援助“或能阻止相邻的高风险国家出现新的感染”。The financial package comes days after the World Health Organisation and the west African countries most affected by the epidemic asked for immediate support.就在世行提出这一财政援助计划几天前,世界卫生组织(World Health Organisation)和受传染最为严重的西非国家都曾请求紧急援助。The African Development Bank has also promised emergency funding, with a package of about m. Donald Kaberuka, head of the AfDB, said the countries affected needed immediate support to build up their health systems.非洲开发(African Development Bank)也已承诺提供大约6000万美元的紧急资金援助。非洲开发行长唐纳德#8226;卡贝鲁卡(Donald Kaberuka)表示,那些受影响的国家急需紧急援助,以建设医疗卫生系统。The death toll from the Ebola virus outbreak in west Africa has climbed to 887, according to figures released by the WHO on Monday that suggest the epidemic is spinning out of control. In only two days, between July 31 and August 1, the WHO said 61 deaths and more than 100 new cases were reported.根据世界卫生组织周一发布的数字,埃拉病毒在西非导致的死亡人数已攀升至887人,显示病毒正在失控。在7月31日到8月1日仅两天时间内,世界卫生组织就表示录得61起死亡病例和逾100起新发现病例。The World Bank said it would redirect some money aly allocated to the three countries into the immediate Ebola crisis and, in addition, would seek permission from its board to tap the so-called emergency crisis window, which was set up several years ago to help poor countries hit by natural disasters.世界表示,此前已决定分配给上述西非三国的资金,将重新调配,用于对埃拉危机的紧急处理。此外,该行还会寻求获得董事会批准,以启用所谓紧急危机窗口。该窗口于几年前设置,旨在帮助受到自然灾害打击的贫穷国家。World Bank officials said some of the money would support the WHO in the near term, and beyond that it would help the three countries’ health systems.世行官员表示,短期内部分资金会用于为世界卫生组织提供持,在那之后这些资金将用于帮助这三国建设医疗卫生系统。“This outbreak is moving faster than our efforts to control it,” she added.目前,埃拉病毒尚无已知的有效疗法或疫苗,这种病毒在感染后2至21天内发作,会导致呕吐、腹泻、以及内外出血症状,致死率在50%到90%之间。Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, said last week “if the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences can be catastrophic in terms of lost lives, but also severe socio-economic disruption and a high risk of sp to other countries”.这次埃拉病毒的爆发,是近40年前该病首次被确诊以来最严重的一次。在此之前最严重的一次是2000年在乌干达的一次爆发,当时有425人因此丧生。1976年,该病毒曾导致大约280名感染者丧生,那次病毒爆发发生在埃拉河附近一个偏远的村庄内(那里现在属于刚果民主共和国),是目前已知最早的埃拉病毒爆发事件。 /201408/318640

As gyrations in China’s stock market captivated the world’s attention in recent months, less eye-catching but ultimately more important changes were under way in the country’s Rmb133tn (tn) market for bank deposits.最近几个月,中国股市的大幅震荡引起了全球的关注。然而,在中国133万亿元人民币(合21万亿美元)的存款市场,却在发生一些不那么吸引眼球、但本质上更加重要的变化。Chinese lenders sold certificates of deposit to the public at unregulated interest rates for the first time in the second quarter, the central bank has revealed, marking a milestone in the government’s push to let market forces set the price of money.中国央行透露,今年第二季度,中国多家首次以不受监管的利率面向公众发行大额存单。在中国政府展开的让市场力量成为资金成本决定因素的努力中,此举有着里程碑式的意义。Eliminating government control over interest rates is seen as a crucial step in shifting China’s growth model away from state-directed investment and forcing banks to allocate funds more efficiently.要使中国的增长模式摆脱对政府主导的投资的依赖、并迫使更有效地配置资金,取消政府对利率的控制被视为关键的一步。The longstanding cap on bank deposit rates has ensured a plentiful supply of low-cost capital for state factories and public infrastructure projects but has also led to wasteful investment and spiralling debt.长期以来对存款利率施加的上限,确保了国有工厂及公共基建项目能够获得充裕的廉价资金供应。然而,这也催生了大量无效投资和不断攀升的债务。Cheap deposit funding has also discouraged banks from seeking out smaller borrowers willing to pay higher interest rates, since lenders earn fat margins even on conservative loans. Now, as China seeks growth based on efficiency gains rather than the construction of more new factories, roads and houses, it wants banks to lend more to companies that generate higher returns.廉价的存款资金,还导致不愿费力寻找那些愿付较高利率的中小借款者,因为即使是保守的贷款也能给带来丰厚的利润。如今,在中国试图通过提高效率而不是建设更多新工厂、公路和住房实现增长之际,中国政府希望向能产生更高回报的企业多放贷。“Promoting CDs substantively achieves partial interest-rate marketisation and is necessary preparation for full liberalisation of deposit rates,” said Li Kelin, economist at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai.上海民生券(Minsheng Securities)经济学家李奇霖表示:“推广大额存单在实质上实现了利率的部分市场化,是对全面放开存款利率管制的必要准备。”The deposit-rate ceiling is the one remaining interest rate still set by government fiat, after the People’s Bank of China removed the floor on bank lending rates in 2013. Bond and money-market interest rates aly float freely.2013年中国央行取消贷款利率下限后,存款利率上限就成了仅剩的一个仍由政府指令设定的利率。目前,中国债券利率和货币市场利率已经能够自由浮动。Market-based interest rates are also a key criterion that the International Monetary Fund will use to decide whether it will endorse the renminbi as an official reserve currency later this year. Zhou Xiaochuan, PBoC governor, said in March that the deposit-rate cap could be lifted by the end of 2015.今年晚些时候国际货币基金组织(IMF)决定是否授予人民币“官方储备货币”身份时,市场化的利率也是一项关键评判指标。3月份,中国央行行长周小川表示,存款利率限制或将在今年底前取消。Chinese lenders issued Rmb682bn in certificates of deposit to companies and individuals in June and July, the PBoC said in its quarterly monetary policy report published on Friday. “In the course of interest-rate marketisation, many countries have used large-denomination certificates of deposit as an important method for pushing ahead with reform,” the central bank said.中国央行在上周五发布的季度货币政策报告中表示,今年6月和7月,中国各向企业和个人发行了6820亿元人民币大额存单。中国央行表示:“从国际经验看,不少国家在存款利率市场化的过程中,都曾以发行大额存单作为推进改革的重要手段。”Chinese certificates of deposit currently require a minimum investment of Rmb30,000 for individuals and Rmb10m for companies. The high threshold is designed to limit their mass-market appeal, thus avoiding an abrupt rise in banks’ funding costs as customers switch from regulated to unregulated deposits. But analysts expect these thresholds will gradually be lowered.目前,中国的大额存单要求,个人投资者认购起点金额不低于30万元人民币,机构投资者认购起点金额不低于1000万元人民币。这一高门槛旨在限制它们对大众市场的吸引力,避免因投资者从受监管的存款转向不受监管的存款而导致资金成本飙升。不过,分析师预计这些门槛会逐渐降低。The central bank has cut benchmark interest rates four times since November to boost the slowing economy. But it has also granted banks increased freedom to set actual deposit rates above the benchmark. Deposit rates are now allowed to float as much as 50 per cent above the benchmark, up from only 10 per cent before November last year.自去年11月以来,为提振放缓的经济,中国央行已四次下调基准利率。但它同时也赋予更大的自由度来将实际存款利率设定在基准利率之上。目前,存款利率允许比基准利率上浮至多50%,而去年11月前至多只能上浮10%。In practice, the PBoC has informally instructed large banks not to raise deposit rates by the legal limit, in order to prevent them from passing higher funding costs on to borrowers amid a slowing economy.在实际操作中,中国央行非正式地指示大型不要把存款利率提高至法定上限处。此举的目的是在经济放缓之际,防止这些将更高的资金成本转嫁给借款方。Bank certificates of deposit were sold in recent months at 40 per cent above the benchmark — still below the legal limit for normal deposits but above the rate big banks are actually offering for normal deposits.最近几个月发售的大额存单,利率比基准利率高40%。这一利率仍低于一般存款的法定上限,但高于大型一般存款的实际存款利率。 /201508/392140

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