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Finance and economics财经商业Copper铜Broken contacts破碎的联系Finance, not economics, may explain coppers recent plunge金融市场而非经济状况造成了近期的铜价下滑THE copper price has long been held to signal the state of the global economy as reliably as the metal conducts electrons.铜价一直以来都是全球经济形势的信号,它的这个作用正如导电性能一样可靠。But that reputation—never fully deserved—is now in tatters. Coppers plunging price says a lot about China, but little about the rest of the world.如今这个本就不甚牢固的地位已经岌岌可危。一路下滑的铜价折射出中国的许多问题,不过与世界形势则关系不大。China consumes about 40% of global copper production.中国消耗着全球40%的成品铜。But not all of that goes straight into manufacturing or construction.但并非所有的铜都被立即用于制造业以及建筑业。Chinese companies have also been using copper as collateral for their hard-currency loans: “buy, store, hedge and pledge” in the words of one trader.中国的公司还将铜作为硬通货贷款的抵押品。用一位从业者的话说,就是“购买,储存,用来对冲和抵押”。That has led to an overhang, with far more of the metal stockpiled than users need.铜的库存量已经远远超过使用需求,已经造成了过量储存。Any change in the conditions that created this stockpile can have a big effect on the price.造成这种储存的各种因素稍有变化就会对铜价造成重大影响。A sign of this is that when the Chinese economy slows, as seems to be happening now, with manufacturing activity weakening for a fifth consecutive month, those stockpiles rise.其中一个例子就是当中国经济增速放缓时,库存就会增加。CRU, a metals researcher, now says the copper-market surplus this year will be four times bigger than it previously estimated, with forecast production outpacing demand by 140,000 tonnes.金属研究机构CRU最近表示今年的铜剩余量将是其之前预计的4倍,预计产量将超过需求量140,000吨,。Chinese data are notoriously opaque, so judging the real health of the countrys copper-consuming industries is hard.鉴于中方的数据是出了名的不透明,所以很难判断该国铜消耗产业的真实规模。A rebound in growth later this year could revive demand for the metal.今年随后的经济增长反弹或许能重新刺激铜材的需求。But other factors are piling pressure on to the copper price.但其他因素也在给铜价施压。One is a growing wariness among creditors, following a corporate-bond failure this month.其中之一就是于本月发生了中国国内20世纪90年代以来首次的企业债券违约,这使借债机构变得愈发谨慎了。As banks worry about their customers abilities to service debts, Chinese firms are finding it harder to get loans.由于担心客户的偿还能力,中国公司发现贷款更难了。This is making some sell their copper to raise cash.这使不少公司抛售储存的铜来套现。Another factor is that Chinese regulators are cracking down on companies using copper stockpiles for speculation.还有一个因素是中方的监管机构正在打击公司们利用铜存储进行投机活动的行为。Joel Crane of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, argues that the authorities are targeting the “shadow-banking network” used by companies to evade controls on hard-currency lending.投行根斯坦利的Joel Crane说,政府已经盯上了公司们用来逃避硬通货借贷管制的“影子网络”。Chinese importers have long used letters of credit issued by banks for raw-material imports as a way of raising funds which they then use for other purposes.中国的会发行原材料出口的信用来募集资金,而进口商们却长期把这些信用用于其它目的。Such shadow banking created lucrative arbitrage possibilities for those able to take advantage of the difference between local and international interest rates.这样的影子系统为那些能利用国内外利率差的人提供了通过套利牟取暴利的机会。This is a useful dodge when times are good, not so when scrutiny increases.当时机合适时,这是很有用的逃避方式,可监管严格时就不是了。A reform in mid-2013 made companies holding copper for collateral keep it onshore, rather than in bonded warehouses, raising the cost of storage.2013年中的一次改革要求持有铜作为抵押品的公司将铜保存在大陆地区,而非保税仓库,这也增加了储存的成本。A similar story seems to be unfolding with iron ore.铁矿石也在发生类似情况。China accounts for half of world steel production, so the iron-ore price is hypersensitive to any downward flicker in demand.中国占到了世界钢材产量的一半,所以铁矿石价格对于一丝一毫的需求减少的苗头都极度敏感。Iron-ore stocks at Chinese ports are at record highs.中国码头上的铁矿石储存量达到了创纪录的数值。China is also trying to substitute its own, lower-quality ore for the higher-grade imported stuff.中国正在试图用进口的高纯度矿石替代低质量的本国矿石。It wants to cut overcapacity and pollution, including using the financial markets to put pressure on the steel industry through higher interest rates and tighter credit.政府想要采取措施对付产能过剩和环境污染问题,包括在金融市场利用高利率和信贷紧缩来给钢铁行业施压。Companies who used iron ore as collateral for their borrowing may now have to use it for debt repayments instead.将铁矿石用作贷款抵押品的公司如今或许要将其转用作贷款偿还了。Copper bears fear that this could easily get out of hand.铜金属持有者担心这会造成情况失控。But the likelihood is more a slow unwinding of positions than a crash.但哪怕要失控,也将是一个缓慢的头寸解除过程而不会突然全部抛售。Goldman Sachs, another bank, notes that it is not in the Chinese authorities interest to shut down commodity-financing deals altogether.另一家高盛集团表示中国政府并不打算完全废除商品金融。It makes more sense just to increase the hedging and storage costs of those firms using commodities to speculate.更像是只让使用商品进行投机的公司对冲和储存的成本上升。Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas, also a bank, notes that the “few hundred thousand tonnes” involved in these deals is only a small part of a 20m tonne market.法国巴黎的Stephen Briggs则认为这些交易涉及的“几十万吨”不过是铜材市场两千万总数的极小部分。The truth may be that jitters in China have just accelerated a change in perceptions about copper: from chronic deficit to surplus.现实或许是,中国国内的神经敏感只是加速了对于铜的观念的改变:从长期供应不足到存储过多。This stems from the impending extra metal coming this year and next from new mines in places such as Mongolia, Peru and Mexico.原因在于今年和明年将从蒙古、秘鲁、墨西哥的新建矿场中增加进口许多矿石。Speculators may come and go, but at least copper, unlike gold, has a comfortably wide range of uses.或许铜的投机生意难以预料,但和金子不同的是,铜至少有着大量的用途。 /201404/285007

Science and technology科学技术The psychology of morality道德心理学Time to be honest时间让人诚实A simple experiment suggests a way to encourage truthfulness由简单实验总结出让人诚实的方法IS SIN original?难道人性本恶?That is the question addressed by Shaul Shalvi, a psychologist at the University of Amsterdam, in a paper just published in Psychological Science.阿姆斯特丹大学心理学家Shaul Shalvi在《心理科学》期刊上刚发表的一篇论文谈到了这个问题。Dr Shalvi and his colleagues, Ori Eldar and Yoella Bereby-Meyer of Ben-Gurion University in Israel, wanted to know if the impulse to cheat is something that grows or diminishes when the potential cheater has time for reflection on his actions.Shalvi士和他的来自以色列Ben-Gurion大学的同事们 Ori Eldar 和 Yoella Bereby-Meye希望知道当一个想要撒谎的人如果有时间对他的行为思考时,他们说谎的动机是增加还是降低。Is cheating, in other words, instinctive or calculating?换句话说,撒谎,是一种应激本能还是经过慢慢算计的?Appropriately, the researchers’ apparatus for their experiment was that icon of sinful activity, the gambling die.研究人员为他们的实验提供了一个很合适的实验工具,用的骰子—本身就象征着罪恶的活动。They wanted to find out whether people were more likely to lie about the result of a die roll when asked that result immediately, or when given time to think.他们想看看人们到底是在什么情况下更容易撒谎,是在需要立即报告骰子点数的情况下还是有足够的时间的情况下。To carry out their experiment, Dr Shalvi, Dr Eldar and Dr Bereby-Meyer gave each of 76 volunteers a six-sided die and a cup.为了进行实验,Ben-Gurion、 Ori Eldar 和 Yoella Bereby-Meye士为76个志愿参与实验的人每人一个六面的骰子和一个杯子。Participants were told that a number of them, chosen at random, would earn ten shekels for each pip of the numeral they rolled on the die.他们告诉参与实验的人,他们随意摇出的骰子的点数,每一点可获得10谢克尔。They were then instructed to shake their cups, check the outcome of the rolled die and remember this roll.然后参与实验的人按照规定摇骰子,检查这一轮他们摇出的点数并且记住它。Next, they were asked to roll the die two more times, to satisfy themselves that it was not loaded, and, that done, to enter the result of the first roll on a computer terminal.他们按照要求再掷两次色子,好让他们自己相信没人对这色子动过手脚,这样检查完没问题之后,他们就把第一次掷出的数字输入到电脑终端中去。Half of the participants were told to complete this procedure within 20 seconds while the others were given no time limit.他要求一半的参与者在20s之内完成,而另一半则没有时间限制。The researchers had no way of knowing what numbers participants actually rolled, of course.当然研究人员无从知晓参与者摇出的真实数字。But they knew, statistically, that the average roll, if people reported honestly, should have been 3.5.但是从统计学理论上来讲,如果人们诚实的话,那么摇出的点数的平均数字应该是3.5,This gave them a baseline from which to calculate participants’ honesty.这个原理为他们提供了判断参与实验的人是否诚实的基线。Those forced to enter their results within 20 seconds, the researchers found, reported a mean roll of 4.6.那些被要求20秒内输入他们结果的人所报告的结果的平均数是4.6,Those who were not under any time pressure reported a mean roll of 3.9.而没有时间限制的人所报告的平均点数是3.9。所以,Both groups lied, then. But those who had had more time for reflection lied less.两个组的人都撒谎了,但有时间考虑的那一半人撒谎的少一些。A second experiment confirmed this result.第二个实验也实了这个结果。A different bunch of volunteers were asked to roll the die just once.另一群志愿者只允许摇一次筛子,与Again, half were put under time pressure and, since there were no additional rolls to make, the restriction was changed from 20 seconds to eight.上次相同的是一半人必须在8秒内输入结果,而另一半则没有做时间限制,The others were allowed to consider the matter for as long as they wished.他们想思考多长时间都行。In this case the first half reported an average roll of 4.4.在这次试验中,前一半人输入的平均数字是4.4。Those given no time limit reported an average of 3.4.有充足时间思考的另一半人输入结果的平均数字是3.4.换句话说,The second lot, in other words, actually told the truth.这一半的人大部分都说了实话。The conclusion, therefore, at least in the matter of cheating at dice, is that sin is indeed original.因此,至少在骰子点数这个问题上,实验的结论是人生来的确是罪恶的。Without time for reflection, people will default to the mode labelled cheat.如果没有思考时间,人们会被预设为贴有欺骗标签的模式。Given such time, however, they will often do the right thing.然而如果给予充足的时间思考,他们通常会选择做正确的事情。If you want someone to be honest, then, do not press him too hard for an immediate decision.所以,如果你希望一个诚实,千万别为了一个立即的决定而给他太大压力。 /201307/248140Can you see that, theres a dolphin, dolphins, right down there.看见没?海豚。就在那边。To spot dolphins immediately was really unexpected.一下子就看到海豚,真是让人出乎意料。Come back, lets go, quick ,quick.过来,本,快点,快点!Ben and Nick, trying catch up with the dolphins.本和尼克想追上海豚。But soon find themselves tracing them up and down the beach.但很快就发现,他们在把鱼赶到海滩边。By late morning, they failed to catch a single shot.直到中午,他们还没有拍到一只。But the only wildlife around is a growing number of flies.周围只有苍蝇围着他们。Flies are unbelievable, they are such a pain.苍蝇太讨厌了,让人很痛苦。You just stand there when the action is going to start, they just..having like that.行动开始时,根本没想到会是这样。To help the team out, biologists Eric and Shane set up a lookout high above them in the cliff though.为了帮助摄制组,生物学家艾瑞克和谢伊在悬崖上设置了观察点。201407/315403

Castles are usually enormous structures requiring strong foundations and the use of heavy construction materials such as stone. 一般来说,城堡是巨大的建筑物,需要打下夯实的地基并且使用石头等材料。If the foundations are not strong enough, the castle could collapse. 如果地基打的不够坚实,城堡就会倒塌的。The idea of building a castle in the air-with no foundation at all-is, of course, ridiculous. 在空中建城堡,不打地基,当然可笑至极。That is why this idiom is used to describe ideas that are not realistic, as if they are dreams or fantasies. 这就是为什么这个习语是用来描述那些不切实际的想法,就像梦跟幻觉一样。So when someone describes a plan or course of action that we believe may be impossible to achieve, we tell him, ;Youre building castles in the air.; 当我们觉得某人描述的计划或者行动方案是不太可能完成的,我们会告诉他“你是在空中盖城堡。”A similar idiom is ;building castles in the sand.; 一则类似的谚语是“沙堆上垒城堡”。We know that, on a beach, sand castles are inevitably and easily destroyed by the tide. 我们都知道,在海滩上,沙堆城堡不可避免地很容易就会被海浪破坏掉。They are not built to last a long time. 它们不会维持很长时间。So when we say someone is ;building castles in the sand,; we mean they are creating something that wont endure very long.所以说当我们对别人说“沙堆上垒城堡”,我们的意思是他们建成的东西通常是坚持不了多久的。201307/250259Business商业报道Chinese industry中国工业Haier and higher海尔海阔天空The radical boss of Haier wants to transform the worlds biggest appliance-maker into a nimble internet-age firm与众不同的海尔老总想将世界上最大的家电制造商改造成一家矫捷的互联网时代的公司NO URINATION or defecation in the working area. That admonition was among 13 rules that managers felt necessary to post on the walls of a shambolic fridge factory in Qingdao in the early 1980s.上世纪八十年代早期,一家位于青岛的冰箱制造厂车间赫然写着:不许在车间大小便,厂长认为这对于已经陷入混乱的工厂来说很有必要。After several senior managers failed to turn it around, in 1984 the municipal government of the Chinese city appointed a young employee, Zhang Ruimin, as the firms boss.在一年几度换帅却无法扭转颓势的情况下,年轻的张瑞敏临危受命出任厂长。The gamble worked. Since then a lousy local firm has turned into the worlds biggest appliance-maker.青岛市政府的这次豪赌收到了成效,随后这家濒临倒闭的工厂一跃成为世界上最大的家电制造商。Most think of Chinese companies as peddlers of cheap, undifferentiated kit or mere copycats.印象中,中国公司即廉价产品、低端元件、或山寨产品的代名词。In contrast, Haier is recognised globally for reliability and marketing know-how.相比之下,海尔已赢得全球顾客的信赖,并且精通市场运作。Mr Zhang had spent time in quality-obsessedGermany, where he observed that even manhole covers were precisely made and numbered.张瑞敏曾到以品质著称的德国考察,他注意到在那里即便只是一个普通的井盖都是精密制造的,还编上了序号,It made a deep impression.这在他脑海里留下了深刻的印象。Incensed that a fifth of the products his plant turned out were defective, in 1985 he handed out sledgehammers and joined employees in smashing 76 faulty fridges in public view.随后,工厂生产的产品不合格率高达20%令他震怒;1985年,他让生产出那些不合格产品的员工当众砸毁了76台冰箱。That won him national celebrity and was the start of the firms transformation.这让他在全国开始小有名气,工厂的转型也由此拉开了序幕。Now comes Mr Zhangs latest radical notion: eliminating the firms entire middle management.如今,张瑞敏最新的理念是:去掉公司所有中层管理人员。But surely it is barmy to tinker with a successful business model?但是,但是如此巨大地改动成功的商业模式是不是疯了?A close inspection of the firms rise reveals that Mr Zhang has never adhered to conventional wisdom.进一步审视海尔的崛起之路不难发现,张瑞敏从不会受制于传统观念。Haier became Chinas biggest fridge-maker in 1999 in part by acquiring lots of lossmaking local rivals.1999年,海尔成为中国最大的冰箱制造厂,一个原因是他不断兼并国内日益亏损的竞争对手。Mr Zhang looked for firms with strong products and markets but inept leadership—stunned fish, he calls them—that could be turned around by superior management.张瑞敏注意到的是那些产品质量过硬、有一定市场份额而管理不善的公司—他称之为休克鱼—这些公司能够通过先进的管理扭转格局。His un-Chinese obsession with quality and branding helped, earning his products a premium even during periodic price wars.他对产品质量、品牌的非中国特色式痴迷,让他在周期性的价格战中为其产品赢得了一项荣誉。He also emphasised top-flight service, rare in China, promising that machines would be free if not delivered within 24 hours.同时,他还注重一流的务理念,这在中国也实属罕见。他向顾客许诺如果海尔产品如果未能在下单后24小时送达,该订单即可免费。Mr Zhang also defied Chinese notions of how to expand overseas.此外,张瑞敏摒弃了中国传统的海外扩张思想。Rather than go first to less competitive regions like South-East Asia and Africa, Haier long ago pushed into America and Europe.很久以前,海尔首先打入美国、欧洲市场,而非首先向竞争力薄弱的东南亚、非洲扩展。Mr Zhang wanted the firm to learn how to meet the demands of the worlds most sophisticated consumers.张瑞敏希望公司能够学校如何满足世界上最挑剔客户的需求,Haiers quality exceeded norms set even byJapans exacting standards bodies.海尔的质量甚至高于日本严格的产品标准。By listening closely to demanding consumers, his firms fast and frugal engineers came up with clever products like mini-fridges built into computer tables, freezers with a slightly warmer compartment and horizontal deep freezers with two tiers of drawers.通过仔细聆听用户需求,海尔敏捷的工程师设计出的智能产品,如内置于电脑桌中的小冰箱,冷冻机上带有一个小暖室,还有一个带有两层抽屉的水平冷藏器。Haier also developed new niches, such as affordable wine fridges, ignored by Western rivals obsessed with economies of scale.海尔还设计了新的壁龛式冰箱,如储酒冰箱,其西方竞争对手痴迷于规模化生产,不屑于这种小众化的产品。It is now pioneering wireless charging of appliances.如今,海尔现在正走在家电无线控制技术的前列。The results of Mr Zhangs unconventional strategy have been breathtaking.张瑞敏非传统策略的成果令人震惊。Haiers revenues have shot up fourfold since 2000, topping 160 billion yuan last year.2000年后,海尔的销售收入增长了四倍,去年达到了1600亿元。Pre-tax profits rose more than six fold over the same period.同期,税前利润涨幅超过六倍。It was judged the eighth most innovative firm worldwide, ahead of Amazon among others, in a ranking drawn up last year by the Boston Consulting Group. And now KKR, a private-equity giant, is investing in the firm.去年,波士顿咨询公司发布的一项排名显示,海尔跻身全球第八大创新企业,领先与亚马逊等名企。现今,股权投资巨头科尔伯格-克拉维斯公司已向海尔投资。It has stumped up 0m for a 10% stake, if the rumours are correct.如果传言属实,KKR向海尔注资5000万美元,占其投资份额10%。Most bosses would be satisfied with such a record, but not Mr Zhang.如此骄人成绩换做任何老总都会很满意,但张瑞敏却不沾沾自喜。Though in his 60s, he still works nearly every day and he rarely takes a holiday.尽管已年过花甲,他仍然将近每天工作,基本不休假。And far from resting on his laurels, he is occupied reinventing his business.张瑞敏非但没有躺在过去的功劳簿上,现今还致力于公司重整。The point of killing middle management is to make the firm more responsive, he says: In the past, employees waited to hear from the boss; now, they listen to the customer.去掉公司所有中层管理人员的意义在于让公司更加。他说:过去,员工等着老板发话;现在,他们得听顾客的。Previously, the firms 80,000 or so workers toiled in traditional and distinct areas like manufacturing, sales and so on.先前,海尔近8万员工遵循传统,在诸如制造、销售等不同部门辛勤工作。Now, they are organised into 2,000 zi zhu jing ying ti—self-managed teams that perform many different roles.现今,他们每2000人组建一个自主经营体,实现团队自我管理,履行各种不同职能。Each is responsible for profit and loss, and individuals are paid on performance.经营体内每位成员都要对团队盈亏负责,个人报酬多少基于其表现好坏。In the past, managers relied on internal support services for, say, research or marketing.过去,像市场调查、营销这类工作,管理人员需要依靠内部的援。To encourage open innovation, the firm insists the new ZZJYTs must attract outside partners and resources.为了鼓励开放式创新,海尔坚持自主经营体必须吸引外部合作伙伴及相应资源。If ambitious employees spot an opportunity, they are free to propose an idea for a new product or service.如果雄心勃勃的员工发现机遇,他们完全可以建议开发一款新产品或一项新务。A vote, which can include not just employees but suppliers and customers, decides which project goes ahead.一种即包括员工,还兼顾供应商、顾客的投票机制,可以决定哪个项目先行实施。The winner also becomes the projects leader.同时,胜者将成为项目负责人。He forms his team by recruiting from across the company; employees are free to join or leave ZZJYTs.张瑞敏通过从整个公司挑选人才,搭建管理团队;员工自行选择是否加入自由经济体。Mr Zhang says the goal is a free market in talent, so the cream rises.他表示这样做的目的是人才自由市场,是金子便会发光。He explains why such disruption is necessary: If we dont challenge ourselves, someone else will.他解释道这样分化管理的必要性:如果我们不自己寻求挑战,总有人会向我们发起挑战。If that sounds like talk straight out of Silicon Valley, in a sense it is.这话听起来就像硅谷的理念,从某种意义上来说确实如此。He is convinced that if Haier is to flourish in the internet age, it must become a services company.张瑞敏相信如果公司想在当今的互联网时代站稳脚跟,那么海尔就要成为一家务型公司。He even thinks it can mine user information to become a big data firm, to serve customers even better.他甚至认为海尔可以开发用户信息而成为一家大型数据公司,如此才能更好的为顾务。How exactly does Mr Zhang intend to strike a balance between the chaotic entrepreneurial energy released by the ZZJYTs and the need for corporate control at the top?既然如此,那么张瑞敏又如何做到平衡混乱自由经济体的创造力和公司高层对整个企业的管理呢?We dont need to balance!, he says with a smile. An unsteady and dynamic environment is the best way to keep everyone flexible.对此,他坦然一笑,并说道:我们不需要去平衡,一个不稳定的动态环境是让每个人都灵活工作的最佳途径。If you doubt his seriousness, just consider the catfish.如果你怀疑他的决心,想想鲶鱼效应的作用。Yang Lin, who started at the firm 12 years ago as a technician, won the contest to become the head of the team for automatic top-loading washing machines.12年前,杨林开始了自己在海尔的技术员工作。如今,他已成为海尔洗衣机全自动型号经营体长。He works extremely hard, he says, not only to earn his bonus but also to stay ahead of the catfish.他说自己工作努力,不仅可以分得公司红利,还在诸多鲶鱼中处于领先位置。That is what the firm calls the person with a rival idea who came second in the voting. He works on the victors team but watches for any chance to unseat him.这便是海尔号召竞职选举中得票第二的人要有竞争意识的结果,他为第一工作,却时刻想着取代第一。Does this upset Mr Yang?这让杨林感到困扰吗?I cant run things like an emperor, he reflects, but I dont mind.他反省道:我无法像一个皇帝统揽大权,但我并不介意。In fact, Im a catfish to other teams myself.事实上,对于其他团队而言我同样也是只很具竞争力的鲶鱼。Its fish-eat-fish at the heart of the worlds most successful white-goods firm.这种鱼吃鱼的理念已经深入这家世界上最成功的家电公司。 /201310/260798

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